Finance

World’s largest oil trading-house foresees oil trading at $50 average during next decade 

Monday, 08 February 2016 12:15

Vitol Group, the world’s leading oil trader, forecast that oil prices will remain low for the next decade due to the slowing Chinese economy and the U.S shale industry’s boost.

It’s hard to see a dramatic price increase,” Vitol Group BV CEO Ian Taylor told Bloomberg in an interview on January 8th.

Taylor whose group trade more than 5.5 million barrels of crude and refined oil per day, enough to meet the needs of Germany, France and Spain combined added that average price for barrel of oil over the next decade should be around $50. “We really do imagine a band, and that band would probably see a $40 to $60 type of band. I can see that band lasting for five years to ten years,” he said.

The lower limit of this range implies a slight increase in the current price which floats around $35 barrel whereas the upper limit corresponds to the commodity’s level in July 2015.

Forecasts of Vitol, highly viewed in the oil industry, could mean that oil producers and oil-trading companies will be facing the longest period of lows for oil price since the 1986-1999 period where the price of oil fluctuated between $10 and $20 a barrel.

The executive who started his career at Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the late 1970s said he didn’t know if prices had already hit bottom, as supply keeps exceeding demand. He however said these prices could slightly increase during the second semester of 2016 reaching $45 to $50 per barrel.

For a foreseeable future, Vitol’s CEO doubts that oil market will ever again see previous triple-digit prices that flattened sovereign wealth funds of Middle East countries and propelled the valuations of major oil companies to levels never seen before. “You have to believe that there is a possibility that you will not necessarily go back above $100, you know, ever,” he said.

He believes that major hindrances to a substantial surge in global oil price are oversupply, growing energy efficiency, Iran’s return on the market and the slowing growth in emerging markets.

On the same topic
Government seeks CFA3104.2 billion in fresh financing for 2026 Funding need rises by CFA777.7 billion compared with last year Debt risk...
Spending plan reaches CFA8816.4 billion, up 14% from 2025 Special Accounts nearly double after creation of a new women and youth...
BoG cuts its benchmark rate to 18% from 21.5%, citing disinflation and better macro conditions. Inflation drops from 23.5% in January 2025 to 8%...
Intelcia to buy back 65% stake from Altice, regain full ownership by 2026 Group targets global top 10 ranking by 2030 through acquisitions, AI...
Most Read
01

(MCB) - The Mauritius Commercial Bank Limited (“MCB”) has successfully granted a strategic financing...

MCB deploys strategic financing to Invictus Investment to scale up its agro-food operations in Africa
02

Anthropic, Rwanda’s government, and ALX launched Chidi, an AI mentor built on Claude. It wi...

Anthropic Partners with Rwanda, ALX to Deploy Claude-Powered AI Learning Companion Across Africa
03

S&P upgrades Zambia to CCC+ as debt talks advance and copper output rebounds. About 94% of $...

S&P Raises Zambia’s Foreign-Currency Rating to CCC+
04

Government, ESCWA, and experts meet to shape national framework Plan aims to fight corruption, c...

Mauritania Advances Blockchain Policy to Modernize Digital Public Services
05

ECOWAS launched the second phase of PAMCIT to expand training in translation and conference inte...

Africa Turns to Multilingualism to Fill High-Skill Jobs
Enter your email to receive our newsletter

Ecofin Agency provides daily coverage of nine key African economic sectors: public management, finance, telecoms, agribusiness, mining, energy, transport, communication, and education.
It also designs and manages specialized media, both online and print, for African institutions and publishers.

SALES & ADVERTISING

regie@agenceecofin.com 
Tél: +41 22 301 96 11 
Mob: +41 78 699 13 72


EDITORIAL
redaction@agenceecofin.com

More information
Team
Publisher

ECOFIN AGENCY

Mediamania Sarl
Rue du Léman, 6
1201 Geneva
Switzerland

 

Ecofin Agency is a sector-focused economic news agency, founded in December 2010. Its web platform was launched in June 2011. ©Mediamania.

 
 

Please publish modules in offcanvas position.