Agence Ecofin TikTok Agence Ecofin Youtube Agence WhatsApp

Finance

World’s largest oil trading-house foresees oil trading at $50 average during next decade 

Monday, 08 February 2016 12:15

(Ecofin Agency) - Vitol Group, the world’s leading oil trader, forecast that oil prices will remain low for the next decade due to the slowing Chinese economy and the U.S shale industry’s boost.

It’s hard to see a dramatic price increase,” Vitol Group BV CEO Ian Taylor told Bloomberg in an interview on January 8th.

Taylor whose group trade more than 5.5 million barrels of crude and refined oil per day, enough to meet the needs of Germany, France and Spain combined added that average price for barrel of oil over the next decade should be around $50. “We really do imagine a band, and that band would probably see a $40 to $60 type of band. I can see that band lasting for five years to ten years,” he said.

The lower limit of this range implies a slight increase in the current price which floats around $35 barrel whereas the upper limit corresponds to the commodity’s level in July 2015.

Forecasts of Vitol, highly viewed in the oil industry, could mean that oil producers and oil-trading companies will be facing the longest period of lows for oil price since the 1986-1999 period where the price of oil fluctuated between $10 and $20 a barrel.

The executive who started his career at Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the late 1970s said he didn’t know if prices had already hit bottom, as supply keeps exceeding demand. He however said these prices could slightly increase during the second semester of 2016 reaching $45 to $50 per barrel.

For a foreseeable future, Vitol’s CEO doubts that oil market will ever again see previous triple-digit prices that flattened sovereign wealth funds of Middle East countries and propelled the valuations of major oil companies to levels never seen before. “You have to believe that there is a possibility that you will not necessarily go back above $100, you know, ever,” he said.

He believes that major hindrances to a substantial surge in global oil price are oversupply, growing energy efficiency, Iran’s return on the market and the slowing growth in emerging markets.





 
Mining


 
Telecom


 
Public Management


ECOFIN AGENCY offers a selection of articles translated from AGENCE ECOFIN. Founded in 2011, Agence Ecofin is a leader in Francophone Pan-African economic news, particularly in West and Central Africa. The agency publishes daily news on nine African economic sectors: Public Management, Finance, ICT, Agribusiness, Energy, Mining, Transport & Logistics, Communication, and Training.

AGENCE ECOFIN
Mediamania Sarl
Rue du Léman, 6
1201 Genève
Tél: +41 22 301 96 11

EDITORIAL TEAM
redaction@agenceecofin.com

ADVERTISING SALES
Benjamin FLAUX
bf@agenceecofin.com
Tél: +41 22 301 96 11
Mob: +41 78 699 13 72

 

Please publish modules in offcanvas position.