Finance

World’s largest oil trading-house foresees oil trading at $50 average during next decade 

Monday, 08 February 2016 12:15

Vitol Group, the world’s leading oil trader, forecast that oil prices will remain low for the next decade due to the slowing Chinese economy and the U.S shale industry’s boost.

It’s hard to see a dramatic price increase,” Vitol Group BV CEO Ian Taylor told Bloomberg in an interview on January 8th.

Taylor whose group trade more than 5.5 million barrels of crude and refined oil per day, enough to meet the needs of Germany, France and Spain combined added that average price for barrel of oil over the next decade should be around $50. “We really do imagine a band, and that band would probably see a $40 to $60 type of band. I can see that band lasting for five years to ten years,” he said.

The lower limit of this range implies a slight increase in the current price which floats around $35 barrel whereas the upper limit corresponds to the commodity’s level in July 2015.

Forecasts of Vitol, highly viewed in the oil industry, could mean that oil producers and oil-trading companies will be facing the longest period of lows for oil price since the 1986-1999 period where the price of oil fluctuated between $10 and $20 a barrel.

The executive who started his career at Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the late 1970s said he didn’t know if prices had already hit bottom, as supply keeps exceeding demand. He however said these prices could slightly increase during the second semester of 2016 reaching $45 to $50 per barrel.

For a foreseeable future, Vitol’s CEO doubts that oil market will ever again see previous triple-digit prices that flattened sovereign wealth funds of Middle East countries and propelled the valuations of major oil companies to levels never seen before. “You have to believe that there is a possibility that you will not necessarily go back above $100, you know, ever,” he said.

He believes that major hindrances to a substantial surge in global oil price are oversupply, growing energy efficiency, Iran’s return on the market and the slowing growth in emerging markets.

On the same topic
EDFI Management Company has provided an $8.25 million partial guarantee for DEG’s $25 million long-term loan to Tanzania’s CRDB Bank. The...
Vista Bank is in advanced talks to acquire a 33% stake in ACEP Cameroon, a key step for entering the CEMAC financial market ecosystem. Finalizing the...
Funds to expand MSME lending and support regional growth strategy Group plans new market entries in Ghana, Cameroon, and others Coris Holding,...
Ecobank Côte d’Ivoire’s net profit rises 15.4% to $77.9 million Strong deposit growth and lower loan-loss provisions drive...
Most Read
01

Wave launches Wave Bank Africa in Côte d'Ivoire with $32M capital Move follows €117M fu...

Wave Launches Commercial Bank in Côte d’Ivoire
02

Sonatel is a major telecom company in West Africa that investors trust, offering steady growth and...

Sonatel Stock Nearly 19% Rise Over the Year, Signals Undervalued Telecom Giant Poised for Further Growth
03

Cameroon's Constitutional Council declared Paul Biya the winner of the presidential election, secu...

Presidential Elections: Paul Biya Declared Winner in Cameroon, Alassane Ouattara Favorite in Ivory Coast
04

ECOWAS will integrate AI into its early warning systems to strengthen crime prevention and intelli...

ECOWAS Deploys Artificial Intelligence to Combat Organized Crime
05

With its presidential election set for tomorrow, October 25th, Côte d’Ivoire is entering a decisive ...

Côte d’Ivoire Heads to the Polls as Investors Balance Optimism and Caution
Enter your email to receive our newsletter

Ecofin Agency provides daily coverage of nine key African economic sectors: public management, finance, telecoms, agribusiness, mining, energy, transport, communication, and education.
It also designs and manages specialized media, both online and print, for African institutions and publishers.

SALES & ADVERTISING

regie@agenceecofin.com 
Tél: +41 22 301 96 11 
Mob: +41 78 699 13 72


EDITORIAL
redaction@agenceecofin.com

More information
Team
Publisher

ECOFIN AGENCY

Mediamania Sarl
Rue du Léman, 6
1201 Geneva
Switzerland

 

Ecofin Agency is a sector-focused economic news agency, founded in December 2010. Its web platform was launched in June 2011. ©Mediamania.

 
 

Please publish modules in offcanvas position.