Finance

World’s largest oil trading-house foresees oil trading at $50 average during next decade 

Monday, 08 February 2016 12:15

Vitol Group, the world’s leading oil trader, forecast that oil prices will remain low for the next decade due to the slowing Chinese economy and the U.S shale industry’s boost.

It’s hard to see a dramatic price increase,” Vitol Group BV CEO Ian Taylor told Bloomberg in an interview on January 8th.

Taylor whose group trade more than 5.5 million barrels of crude and refined oil per day, enough to meet the needs of Germany, France and Spain combined added that average price for barrel of oil over the next decade should be around $50. “We really do imagine a band, and that band would probably see a $40 to $60 type of band. I can see that band lasting for five years to ten years,” he said.

The lower limit of this range implies a slight increase in the current price which floats around $35 barrel whereas the upper limit corresponds to the commodity’s level in July 2015.

Forecasts of Vitol, highly viewed in the oil industry, could mean that oil producers and oil-trading companies will be facing the longest period of lows for oil price since the 1986-1999 period where the price of oil fluctuated between $10 and $20 a barrel.

The executive who started his career at Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the late 1970s said he didn’t know if prices had already hit bottom, as supply keeps exceeding demand. He however said these prices could slightly increase during the second semester of 2016 reaching $45 to $50 per barrel.

For a foreseeable future, Vitol’s CEO doubts that oil market will ever again see previous triple-digit prices that flattened sovereign wealth funds of Middle East countries and propelled the valuations of major oil companies to levels never seen before. “You have to believe that there is a possibility that you will not necessarily go back above $100, you know, ever,” he said.

He believes that major hindrances to a substantial surge in global oil price are oversupply, growing energy efficiency, Iran’s return on the market and the slowing growth in emerging markets.

On the same topic
BYD to reach 35 South African dealerships by early 2026, accelerating plan EV market share rises to 2.4%, driven by hybrids and consumer...
Government repaid about CFA1 200 billion from January to November 2025 Internal revenues reached CFA2 500 billion, equal to 105 % of...
Proparco offers a €1.5 million guarantee to support Teranga Capital’s SME investments. The mechanism lowers risk and backs a €3 million...
WAEMU banking liquidity increased by CFA1,700 billion ($3.02 billion) in one year, according to BCEAO Governor Jean-Claude Kassi...
Most Read
01

Camtel to launch Blue Money in 2026, entering Cameroon’s crowded mobile money market led by MTN Mo...

Cameroon: State Owned Telecommunication Company To Enter Mobile Money Market
02

Eritrea faces some of the Horn of Africa’s deepest infrastructure and climate-resilience gaps, lim...

AfDB Re-engages Eritrea With Strategy Focused on Infrastructure, Climate Resilience and Regional Integration
03

Huaxin's $100M Balaka plant localizes clinker production, saving Malawi $50M yearly in f...

Malawi: New $100M Cement Plant Targets Forex Crisis but Faces Energy Reality
04

Nigeria seeks Boeing-Cranfield partnership to build national aircraft MRO centre Project aims t...

Nigeria Pursues Boeing, Cranfield Partnership to Establish Aircraft Maintenance Center
05

BYD plans to open 35 dealerships in South Africa by Q1 2026, earlier than initially scheduled...

South Africa: BYD Targets 35 Dealerships by End-March 2026
Enter your email to receive our newsletter

Ecofin Agency provides daily coverage of nine key African economic sectors: public management, finance, telecoms, agribusiness, mining, energy, transport, communication, and education.
It also designs and manages specialized media, both online and print, for African institutions and publishers.

SALES & ADVERTISING

regie@agenceecofin.com 
Tél: +41 22 301 96 11 
Mob: +41 78 699 13 72


EDITORIAL
redaction@agenceecofin.com

More information
Team
Publisher

ECOFIN AGENCY

Mediamania Sarl
Rue du Léman, 6
1201 Geneva
Switzerland

 

Ecofin Agency is a sector-focused economic news agency, founded in December 2010. Its web platform was launched in June 2011. ©Mediamania.

 
 

Please publish modules in offcanvas position.