• FAO urges countries not to restrict fertilizer and energy exports
• War-linked disruptions threaten global supply and drive prices higher
• Food security risks grow as farmers may cut fertilizer use

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization called on governments to avoid restricting fertilizer and energy exports, warning that such moves could deepen market tensions and trigger a broader food crisis.

The appeal, issued on April 13, comes as the war in Iran continues to disrupt global energy and fertilizer markets. Oil prices have surged, while concerns are mounting over supplies of nitrogen and phosphate-based fertilizers.

At the center of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route now effectively closed. According to UNCTAD, nearly one-third of global maritime fertilizer trade passes through the strait, making it a key chokepoint. “We are in an input crisis,” said David Laborde, director of the FAO’s agrifood economics division.

FAO officials warn that keeping fertilizer flowing is one of the most important policy decisions governments can make to prevent the situation from escalating. “The clock is ticking,” said FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero. “The last thing we want is lower yields, higher food commodity prices, and another wave of food inflation next year.”

The organization is calling for rapid intervention from international financial institutions to support countries at risk of fertilizer shortages, especially as planting seasons are already underway in many regions. FAO said it has mapped countries’ fertilizer needs based on crop calendars and required volumes.

The risks to global food security are significant. If fertilizer supply remains constrained and prices stay elevated, farmers may reduce usage, leading to lower crop yields. FAO warns that the current situation could prove more dangerous than the 2022 crisis, especially if it coincides with a strong El Niño event.

Such a climate pattern, which warms Pacific Ocean waters and drives hotter, drier conditions in tropical regions, could develop later this year, adding further stress to agricultural production.

Despite the FAO’s warning, geopolitical and market realities may limit the impact of its call. Major suppliers have already moved to protect domestic markets.

Russia, which controls up to 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade, suspended exports of the fertilizer for one month starting March 21 to secure local supply during the spring planting season. China has also tightened restrictions on urea exports since October 2025, extending measures initially described as temporary through August 2026.

These actions highlight the growing tension between national priorities and global market stability—at a time when the margin for error in global food systems is narrowing.

Espoir Olodo