• Global power shifts offer Africa leverage for economic transformation

• BRICS+ expansion and US-China rivalry reshape global alignments

• PCNS urges Africa to avoid new dependencies, prioritize self-driven growth

Global geopolitical realignments are opening new opportunities for Africa, but only if the continent can convert intensifying competition among major powers into a driver of structural economic transformation. This assessment comes from a policy brief released in late October by the Moroccan think tank Policy Center for the New South (PCNS).

Titled Perspectives africaines dans le panorama géopolitique mondial, the brief argues that although the United States remains the world’s leading military and economic power, its leadership is increasingly contested. Washington’s credibility has been weakened by the 2008 financial crisis, by the disorderly withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq, and by the rise of China. The unipolar world of the early 2000s has been replaced by a multipolar order shaped by China, Russia, India and the European Union, each pursuing strategic agendas that diverge from the long-dominant United States-led model.

The report highlights a long-term strategic rivalry between the United States and China. Many international relations scholars describe this dynamic as a modern version of the Thucydides Trap, in which an established power fears the rise of a challenger. This competition spans economic influence, military strategy and ideology. It includes trade and technology battles, competition over value chains and semiconductors, military build-ups in the South China Sea, new security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific, and a clash between liberal democracy and state-led capitalism. Although both sides have avoided open conflict, the risk of miscalculation remains significant.

BRICS+ Expansion and Shifting Blocs

The rise of alternative geopolitical blocs is illustrated by the expansion of BRICS to include the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. This enlarged grouping, commonly known as BRICS+, brings together a diverse but influential set of countries that represent more than 45 percent of the world’s population and more than 36 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms. Its members seek to challenge Western dominance, especially that of the United States, through institutions such as the New Development Bank and through calls for greater use of local currencies.

The Russia and Ukraine conflict has been a major shock to the global economy. It exposed Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and the fragility of global food supply chains. Africa has been among the regions most affected by these disruptions. In the Middle East, separate from the Israel and Palestine conflict, the region is experiencing attempts at normalization between Israel and several Arab states, rising tensions related to Iran’s nuclear program, and several proxy conflicts. These crises have direct implications for global energy security and for economic stability.

According to the PCNS, these geopolitical shifts have created a complex crisis for Africa. The continent has faced food insecurity during the height of the Russia and Ukraine conflict, sharp increases in energy prices, the loss of vital revenue streams such as reduced Suez Canal earnings for Egypt, limited access to international financial markets, and rising threats from jihadist groups such as AQIM and al Shabaab.

Avoiding New Forms of Dependency

Africa’s relations with emerging powers and Western countries are evolving in different directions. Partnerships with emerging powers remain mixed. Beyond China and Russia, many countries in this group have not shown strong engagement with Africa. The report warns that some aspects of Chinese cooperation, including opaque lending, have contributed to unsustainable debt levels in countries such as Angola, Zambia and Kenya. The model of exchanging infrastructure for raw materials also reinforces commodity dependence and does not deliver significant technology transfer or durable employment.

Russia’s contribution to African development has been limited apart from military cooperation carried out through actors with uncertain status.

In response to China’s growing role, Western actors are trying to reposition themselves through initiatives such as the European Union’s Global Gateway and the G7’s Build Back Better World initiative, which promise sustainable, transparent and values-driven investment. Yet this traditional partnership model is under strain. Rising anti-French sentiment in the Sahel, which led to the departure of French forces from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, reflects a rejection of what is widely seen as an ineffective and paternalistic post-colonial presence.

The report stresses that African countries are not seeking to break ties with the West. Instead, they want to redefine the relationship on the basis of mutual respect and shared interests. The real challenge is to avoid replacing one dependency with another by shifting from the West to BRICS+, or from Europe to Russia, or from the United States to China. Such a shift could draw Africa into a new geopolitical confrontation that does not serve the continent’s long-term interests.

The report argues that African states must position themselves as strategic players with their own priorities. They should use global competition among major powers as leverage to advance their development agendas.

Africa’s Strategic Awakening

This new assertiveness is increasingly visible on the international stage. The African Union’s admission as a permanent member of the G20 in 2023 and the continent’s campaign for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council illustrate this shift. However, major economic challenges remain. The priority is to convert external interest in African resources into long-term structural development.

According to the PCNS, Africa must negotiate technology transfers, expand local processing of raw materials, diversify its economies, and strengthen regional integration by accelerating implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). These measures would allow the continent to transform global competition for its resources into genuine economic transformation.

Walid Kéfi