• Fitch expects Rwanda’s GDP growth to exceed 7% in 2027, driven by construction, agriculture, and tourism.
• Inflation is projected to rise to 7.6% in 2026 but remain within the central bank’s target range.
• The rating agency affirmed Rwanda’s B+ credit rating and raised its outlook to stable from negative.

Rwanda’s real GDP growth is expected to exceed 7% in 2027, up from an average of 6.7% projected for 2025–2026, Fitch Ratings explained in a March 13 statement.

The agency said expansion in construction, agriculture, and tourism will support the country’s economic momentum, but the outlook remains exposed to several risks, including potential delays in official disbursements and disruptions linked to climate events or health crises.

Inflation is also expected to edge higher, reaching 7.6% in 2026 from 7% in 2025, driven by rising food and energy prices. Even so, the rate would remain within the central bank’s target range of 2% to 8%.

The forecast comes as the East African country has recorded strong economic expansion in recent years. In the third quarter of 2025, growth reached 11.8%, compared with 8.9% in 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). During the same period, the government rebased its GDP using 2024 as the new reference year, a move intended to better reflect the economy’s current structure.

Despite these gains, Rwanda continues to face a high level of public debt. Fitch expects debt to peak at around 79% of GDP in 2027, up from 75% in 2025, before stabilizing. The increase will be driven by persistent primary deficits, spending tied to the Bugesera International Airport project and the expansion of RwandAir, as well as a gradual depreciation of the exchange rate.

Fitch said the high debt burden should remain manageable thanks to the favorable terms of Rwanda’s external debt. “We expect the high debt burden to be mitigated by the highly concessional nature of external debt, translating into favorable affordability,” the agency noted.

The country also continues to face structural challenges, including low GDP per capita and persistent fiscal and current account deficits that have contributed to elevated public and external debt levels.

Fitch Raises Outlook to Stable, Affirms B+ Rating

Fitch Ratings affirmed Rwanda’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at B+ while revising the outlook to stable from negative. The rating measures the likelihood that a government or company may fail to repay its external debt over a period longer than one year.

The change reflects reduced uncertainty over Rwanda’s access to external financing, supported by an improvement in the diplomatic climate in the Great Lakes region and continued backing from international partners.

External disbursements reached about $1 billion, or 6.1% of GDP, during the fiscal year ending in June 2025, Fitch said. These inflows helped ease short-term financing pressures.

Rwanda’s growth outlook also remains well above the average for countries rated in the “B” category, which Fitch estimates at around 4.5%.

Lydie Mobio