The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated, in its annual prospective study made public on 10 November, that oil prices should gradually rebound during the coming years to around USD 80/barrel by 2020 thanks to a reduced offer.

“The adjustment process of the oil market is rarely done smoothly, but in our central scenario, the market will find back its balance at USD 80 per barrel in 2020, with the price increase continuing afterwards”, the organisation based in Paris stressed in its study entitled “World Energy Outlook”.

Oil prices have dropped by over 50% since June 2014. The level is currently under USD 50, partly due to the decision by member countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to flood the market in order to counter the rise of schist hydrocarbons in the USA. The increase in demand in a context of low prices and reduction of the future production following a decrease in expenditure in the areas of exploration and production will however favour a gradual return to market balance, according to IEA, which reveals that oil companies have already cut their expenditure by over 20% in 2015 only.

The demand will increase, by 900,000 barrels per day on average per year until 2020, thanks in part to the growing needs of China, South-East Asia, the Middle East and Africa. It will peaks at 103.5 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2040, against 92.7 mbd in 2014.

IEA does not exclude, however, a scenario where prices will remain at levels close to USD 50 per barrel until 2020, before a gradual rise to USD 85 in 2040, in the event of a sluggish world economy growth, a resistant American schist production and OPEC keeping its market saturation strategy.