The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 12, 2016, said it feared that global economy will stagnate amid prolonged low growth levels in most economies worldwide. “Lower growth means less room for error,” said IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld, as central banks’ governors and ministers of finance hold spring meeting in Washington.

IMF’s analysts say a generalized decline in consumption is possible and could result in divestments in private sector, unemployment rising and consequently inequalities and deficits. These were behind the 1929 depression.

The issue today is that politicians as well as scholars have run out of answers. Even the old John Meynard Keunes strategy, which inspired President Roosevelt, seems to have lost its effectiveness. Over the past years, most so-called developed economies sustained their activities by increasing their public deficits, multiplying quantitative easing, or re-inflating their already strained banking groups. This however, did not really restart their growth.

In Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), the global slump translates into the reduction by a percentage point on initial forecasts, to only 3% by IMF, below World Bank’s 3.3% released on April 11, 2016.

South Africa, SSA’s most diversified and industrialized economy now exhibits a forecast growth of 0.6% in 2016 against 1.3% in 2015.

In Nigeria, Africa’ leading economy GDP-wise, growth should reach 2.3% this year far from 2014’s 7.2%. As the country faces oil slump that slashed its foreign exchange reserves, it must also face a rising inflation currently at 12.8%, close to 2013’s record (13%), according to data released on April 12, 2016,.

Despite all these, not all seems to be dark. Indeed, China, whose status worries the whole world, had its forecasts improved by 0.2%. This could have a major positive impact on some African countries, those producing mineral resources especially.

Idriss Linge