Citing central bank’s estimates, Standard & Poor’s said Rwanda’s commercial banks’ net foreign exchange fell by 70% at the end of 2015, to $40 million. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves (amount of foreign currency central bank has) decreased by 12% only, to $900 million representing 4 months of import.

Revenues from Rwanda’s mining sector which represent almost the third of the country’s good exports, amid global commodities’ price fall, slumped by 40% in 2015. Imports on the other hand, which are fueled by household consumption and public investment keep rising, widening current deficit (negative difference between imports and exports) to 14% of GDP, thus beating 2014’s record of 12%.

S&P’s analysts on this basis said Rwanda’s global external debt rose to $1.7 billion representing 90% of overall external earnings, against 60% the year before (2014).

Despite these, World Bank and IMF forecast a strong growth outlook for the country and say its global debt will not exceed 36% of GDP by 2019, and decrease even beyond.

In sight of all these, the rating agency maintained Rwanda’s B+/B long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings . However, it revised down the country’s outlook to negative from stable saying it was due to increasing risk to external accounts.

Idriss Linge