• The Group is seeing shifting earnings mix toward the rest of Africa in the medium term, led by East Africa scale and a pan-African model.
• Competition will intensify with Standard Bank, Moroccan lenders, and Nigerian groups, as Nedbank exits ETI and FirstRand eyes Kenya.
• Absa targets client-led delivery, cashless branche,s and a Dubai hub, with Africa Regions flagged as the group’s next growth engine.

Absa Group Ltd.’s new chief executive, Kenny Fihla, said the lender is preparing to tilt its business toward faster-growing markets outside South Africa, signaling a medium-term shift in earnings mix as the bank chases scale in East Africa and beyond. The stance echoes the group’s latest outlook, which guides that Africa Regions’ earnings growth should outpace South Africa « over the time », positioning the rest of the continent as Absa’s next growth engine.

In a Bloomberg interview this week, he said Absa will run businesses on a pan-African operating model, stabilize a leadership bench with too many acting roles, and push a culture that is client-led rather than product-led. He also flagged branch modernization—shifting many outlets to cashless formats to cut costs and move closer to foot traffic—and said Absa is opening a representative office in Dubai to strengthen the Middle East–Africa corridor.

“Hard to pin down a definitive date, but work starts immediately. I’ve visited Tanzania and Uganda; initiatives are already underway. I’m visiting other geographies, not to start projects—teams are already moving—but to add weight and impetus. In the medium term, the shape of the group and earnings mix should shift toward Africa Regions,” Fihla said.

The competitive bar is high. Standard Bank’s Africa Regions contributed 41% of group headline earnings in 1H25, a reference point for rivals seeking continental breadth. Absa’s own Africa Regions delivered R4.05 billion of headline earnings in 1H25—about 34% of the group—leaving room to grow share outside its home market.

Absa’s push lands amid intensifying cross-border competition. Morocco’s banks retain wide footprints—Bank of Africa says it operates in 32 countries (20 in Africa), while Attijariwafa bank lists operations across 27 countries—and Nigerian groups are expanding aggressively, led by Access Bank’s purchases of Standard Chartered’s African consumer units, including Tanzania and The Gambia, and UBA’s ongoing regional build-out. The regional chessboard is also shifting as Nedbank exits a long-standing pan-African holding. On Aug. 15, the South African lender agreed to sell its 21.2% stake in Ecobank Transnational Inc. for $100 million, a move it framed as a strategic refocus on Southern and East Africa.

Fihla’s message marks the second expansion signal from a major South African bank in a week, after FirstRand said Kenya’s tougher capital rules could catalyze consolidation and create an entry point. Absa, by contrast, is prioritizing share gains and scale where it already operates—with Fihla highlighting opportunities to consolidate in Tanzania and grow in Uganda and Kenya—and will unveil a refreshed strategy in roughly two months.

Absa’s 1H25 scorecard gives it more room to maneuver: diluted HEPS rose 16%, ROE improved to 14.8%, and the credit-loss ratio fell to 100 bps, at the top end of its through-the-cycle target range. Management maintained a ~55% payout and guided to mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2025, with non-interest income outpacing net interest income.

Idriss Linge