Cote d’Ivoire’s trade balance, according to data released by Bloomberg, has recorded a $22.4 million deficit in 2015. A first since 1980. Comparing this data with economic outlook readjusted in April 2016 by the International Monetary Fund, it appears that the deficit should pursue in 2016 and 2017, before being reverted at the end of 2018.

Starting 2012, Cote d’Ivoire’s commercial trade increased to $21.6 billion. The following year it rose to $27 billion as exports surged to $14.5 billion. However, when trade volume decreased, exports’ was greater than imports’.

After almost a decade marked by a socio-political crisis, public expenditures in the country rose significantly as various infrastructures were built. This spurred the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which was forecast at 8.6% for 2016, with an average inflation rate on 1.3% only.

Moreover, the Ivorian government said it will create up to 2 million jobs by 2020. If this was to come true, available revenue of Ivorian households would increase thus support the surge in consumption. However, as local production may fail to satisfy demand, volume of imports could increase. The greater consumption level would be paired with a greater commercial deficit also or in the best case, would neutralize GDP’s growth.

Idriss Linge