• Poverty, inflation and job insecurity persist despite strong growth

• New government formed to convert mining growth into inclusive development

Recent elections in Guinea have taken place amid an open-ended political transition following the overthrow of President Alpha Condé in September 2021. Led by the National Committee of Reconciliation and Development (CNRD), the transition period was marked by political tensions, repeated delays to the electoral calendar, and strong expectations for a return to constitutional rule. 

Social pressures remain severe. Inflation, estimated at 5.1% in 2024 by the World Bank, continues to erode purchasing power. The official unemployment rate, ranging between 4.5% and 5.8%, masks widespread informality and job insecurity, particularly among young people.

Nearly 52% of the population lives below the international poverty line of $3.65 PPP per day, with around 1.8 million people having recently fallen into poverty. These challenges are compounded by sharp regional and gender disparities, as well as a high illiteracy rate of 68%, according to the National Institute of Statistics cited by the MEPUA in 2024. Illiteracy disproportionately affects women in rural areas.

Economic performance and outlook

Guinea’s economy has recorded strong growth, driven largely by the mining sector. Real GDP expanded by 7.1% in 2023 and an estimated 5.7% in 2024. The outlook remains positive, with growth projected at around 6.5% in 2025 and the potential for double-digit expansion in the medium term, supported by the Simandou iron ore project.

However, this growth has not been broadly inclusive. Formal job creation remains limited, public revenue collection is low at around 13% of GDP, and dependence on raw materials remains high. The central challenge for authorities will be to turn mining-led growth into sustainable development, job creation, and productive investment.

Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Amadou Bah Oury formed a new government on Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026, tasked with addressing these structural challenges and laying the foundations for sustainable and inclusive growth under President Mamadi Doumbouya.

Within the new cabinet, the effectiveness of public policy will depend largely on the government’s ability to convert political ambition into tangible economic results. While the entire executive is involved, particular pressure will fall on Finance Minister Mariama Ciré Sylla, who is expected to play a central role in delivering key reforms.

Ingrid Haffiny