African leaders have pledged to reduce the use of fossil fuels to combat climate change. However, the continent's pressing development needs suggest a different reality: in Africa, the fossil fuel sector may continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

Africa is projected to increase its refining capacity by 1.2 million barrels per day by 2030, according to OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook. This is one of the fastest growth rates in the world, confirming Africa’s continued reliance on hydrocarbons, a trajectory that seems at odds with the global push for a green energy transition, especially as the continent is one of the most vulnerable to climate change.

“In the past 50 years, drought related hazards have claimed the lives of over half a million people and led 2 to economic losses of over 70 billion USD in the region," Kenyan President William Ruto said at COP27 in Egypt in 2022. The African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that Africa needs to mobilize $100 billion per year for its climate transition by 2040, a colossal challenge equivalent to nearly half the combined GDP of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries in 2024.

The Challenge of Development and Oil Revenue

Faced with urgent development needs in health, infrastructure, education, and energy, African governments are relying on fossil fuels to finance public services. Crude oil exports remain vital. In Nigeria, for example, 703 billion naira ($457 million) was used for debt repayment in February, representing 86% of the month's oil revenue, which itself accounts for nearly one-third of state income.

At the same time, another trend is emerging: a drive to capture more added value through local refineries. After decades of inefficient state-owned monopolies, governments are now encouraging private sector involvement through tax breaks, customs exemptions, and industrial zones. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria, the future Cabinda unit in Angola, and the Hoima refinery in Uganda illustrate this strategy.

A Pragmatic Transition

Caught between social urgency and climate pressure, several African leaders are advocating for a middle ground. At the last Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan in May, South Africa argued for a "balanced" transition. "We cannot kill the economy to preserve ecology," said Gwede Mantashe, Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy. His colleague, Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, added, "We transition, you don't transition in darkness. When the lights are on, when industries and manufacturing pick up, when we lift people out of hunger and into jobs, then the conversation becomes real for Africa, not only an elite debate."

This pragmatism reflects a reality: the continent contributes only 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions but must meet the growing energy demands of its population and find the means to finance its development.

A Global Paradox

Africa’s approach is not an isolated case. Despite calls for decarbonization, global investment in fossil fuels is on the rise, reaching a record $869 billion in bank financing in 2024. Black gold, often portrayed as a relic to be abandoned, remains central to global energy strategies. The African trajectory appears less as an exception and more as a reflection of a global paradox: everyone talks about transition, but everywhere, fossil fuels continue to drive economic development.

In Africa, they may remain this ambiguous foundation for a long time, a driver of growth and an obstacle to sustainability.

Moutiou Adjibi Nourou