Copper prices keep climbing. After surging past $9,000 in March, they hit a new high above $11,000 per ton. While long-term prospects for copper remain robust, opinions vary regarding short-term outlooks.

On Monday, May 20th, copper reached a record $11,460 per ton, outperforming Macquarie analysts' Q3 2023 peak prediction of $9,500. The analysts had also forecast copper to reach 15,000 next year. 

Several sources attribute the recent surge in copper futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange to positive copper forecasts, BHP's interest in Anglo American, supply concerns, and short position liquidation in New York.

Despite the possibility of an early $15,000 breakthrough, analysts warn of speculative influences driving the price surge. In a recent release, Reuters underscored speculation’s impact on current prices. The media mentioned ongoing copper shipments from Chile and Peru to cover short positions on the New York stock. 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg quoted market experts who warned that copper prices may be inflated, especially with moderate demand and high stocks in China (the world’s top buyer). While short-term corrections are possible, the consensus among analysts, as noted by the Ecofin Agency, leans towards a long-term copper price increase.

In a report dated May 17, 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that announced projects can help meet 70% of the global copper demand by 2035. That is if all world countries meet their respective climate targets. The IEA estimates that nearly $800 billion must be invested in critical resource extraction by 2040 to align with a +1.5°C global warming scenario. About $492 billion is needed for copper alone according to the Agency.