• ICCO now expects a 49 000-ton surplus, far below earlier forecasts.
• Global output is rising, but less than initially projected.
• Lower grinding activity continues to support the market surplus.

The global cocoa surplus for the 2024/2025 season is now expected to reach 49 000 tons, according to estimates from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) published in its quarterly bulletin on November 28, 2025. The projected stock is almost three times lower than the organization’s initial February forecast of 142 000 tons.

The revision reflects a weaker-than-expected rebound in production. The ICCO now estimates global output at 4.69 million tons in 2024/2025, an increase of 7.6 % from the previous season’s 4.36 million tons, but slightly below the organization’s earlier projection of 4.84 million tons.

The surplus remains in place mainly because slower grinding activity has reduced bean consumption by processors. According to the ICCO, global bean grindings fell by 4.3 % year on year to 4.6 million tons, as high input costs squeezed processing margins.

Data compiled on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that cocoa prices rose 68.23 %, closing at $7 924 per ton on April 2, 2025, compared with $4 710 per ton in October 2024 in New York, with peaks near $9 000 recorded in December and January of the period under review.

Evolution of cocoa prices on the ICE in New York

Cocoa prices then dropped 14.23 %, closing at $6 796 per ton on September 30, 2025.

Overall, the market appears less tight than in 2023/2024, a season marked by a record deficit of 489 000 tons. The ICCO notes that its figures may be revised in upcoming publications, depending on data updates from producing countries.

Stéphanas Assocle