• Five Gulf countries accounted for 13.35% of Kenya’s cut flower export value, totaling $722.9 million.
• Kenya’s cut flower export volumes fell 12% year-on-year to 102,475 tonnes in 2024, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
• Airspace closures in the Middle East threaten cargo capacity and could increase air freight costs, industry officials said.

U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, launched overnight between February 27 and 28, triggered a chain reaction across Middle Eastern airspace. Several international media outlets reported that Iran, Israel, and multiple regional countries, including Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates, closed or restricted access to their airspace.

This security environment could disrupt shipments from Kenya’s floriculture industry. Clément Tulezi, Chief Executive Officer of the Kenya Flower Council, told local media outlet Capital FM on March 3: “The Gulf is a key air hub for perishable goods from Kenya. When airports and air corridors become congested, we see a reduction in available cargo space, delays, and diversions.”

Gulf Market Expansion at Risk?

Nairobi has sought in recent years to diversify export markets for cut flowers beyond the European Union by targeting Gulf countries such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.

Data compiled on the Trade Map platform show that these five countries represented nearly 13.35% of the total value of Kenya’s cut flower exports, which reached $722.9 million.

Beyond concerns over reduced cargo space, the Kenya Flower Council fears rising air freight tariffs. Airlines are diverting flights to avoid high-risk routes, and carriers are increasing operating costs as a result.

Tulezi added: “For the Middle East market in particular, any prolonged disruption to flights to hubs such as Dubai affects timely delivery, which is essential for flowers. Our immediate priority is to protect quality through the cold chain and work with airlines and handlers to secure alternative routes.”

The situation raises additional concerns because Kenya’s flower industry has already faced higher maritime freight costs since 2023 due to the Red Sea crisis linked to Houthi attacks. Shipping companies have diverted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, and operators have extended transit times. This environment has pushed many exporters to rely more heavily on air transport to sustain cut flower shipments.

Data compiled by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics show that Kenya’s cut flower export volumes declined 12% year-on-year to 102,475 tonnes in 2024 amid the Red Sea conflict.

The latest Middle East tensions therefore risk compounding existing logistical pressures on one of Kenya’s most strategic agricultural export sectors.

Stéphanas Assocle