• Coffee output projected to reach 11.56 million bags or 694,000 tons

• Growth driven by rejuvenated plantations and high-yield varieties

• USDA sees yield and harvest area increasing in 2025/2026 cycle

Ethiopia’s coffee production is forecast to reach 11.56 million bags, or 694,000 tons, in the 2025/2026 season, marking a 9% increase from 638,000 tons the previous cycle, according to a June 3 report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This would set a new record for the country’s coffee output.

The USDA attributes the expected growth to the expansion of rejuvenated and newly planted areas. The harvest area is projected to grow by 4%, reaching 790,000 hectares. Over the past four years, more than 450,000 hectares have been replanted with improved, high-yield coffee varieties. Producers have also adopted “stumping,” a method of deep pruning to regenerate old trees, which has improved both yield and bean quality.

These changes are expected to raise yields by 4.7% to 0.88 tons per hectare in 2025/2026. The country’s average annual production growth rate over the last three years now stands at 2.83%.

Ethiopia, Africa’s top coffee producer, is strengthening its lead through these reforms. Sustained growth is also essential for the country to meet its pledge, made at the 3rd G25 Coffee Summit in Dar es Salaam in February, to help raise Africa’s share of global coffee output from 11% to 20% by 2030.