• Purchases could exceed 110 million tons by year-end
• Imports reached 103.79 million tons in the first 11 months, up 6.9 %
• U.S. sales rebound as China expands buying from South America

The year 2025 is shaping up to be historic for the global soybean market. According to forecasts from agricultural consultancy JCI reported by Reuters, China’s purchases could surpass 110 million tons by the end of December, setting a new record for the world’s largest buyer, which already accounts for more than 60 % of global soybean trade.

Data from the General Administration of Customs show cumulative imports over the first 11 months of the year reaching 103.79 million tons, a 6.9 % increase from last year. The revised outlook is based mainly on China’s continued large purchases of South American soybeans and on a gradual recovery in imports from the United States.

Taking advantage of trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, Brazilian and Argentine suppliers have increased their shipments to China. In September, Brazil supplied nearly 85 % of China’s total soybean imports, and Argentina about 9 %. Following the agreement reached by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea ahead of the Asia-Pacific Cooperation summit, U.S. exporters have resumed shipments to China.

Since late October, China’s state-owned conglomerate and leading buyer, trader, and processor of grains has booked 2.7 million tons of soybeans from the United States, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

As part of the bilateral understanding, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a target for China to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans for the remainder of the year and at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years.

Espoir Olodo