• PR-PICA forecasts Mali’s 2025/26 seed-cotton output at 433,700 tons, down 34% year-on-year.

• Benin’s harvest is expected to reach 632,000 tons, nearly matching last season’s 637,697 tons.

• Poor rainfall in September–October 2025 and early-season structural challenges weigh heavily on Mali’s output.

West Africa remains Africa’s main cotton-producing region, dominated by Mali and Benin. As the 2025/26 season progresses, updated forecasts point to a reshuffling in the regional production ranking.

PR-PICA, the Regional Integrated Cotton Production Program in Africa, reported on 13 November that Mali’s 2025/26 seed-cotton harvest should reach 433,700 tons. This projection suggests a significant fall that could push Mali behind Benin at the end of the campaign.

If confirmed, the forecast marks a 34% drop from Mali’s previous production of 656,751 tons. The decline would place Mali second to Benin, where PR-PICA-reported inter-professional estimates expect a harvest of 632,000 tons, only slightly below last season’s 637,697 tons.

PR-PICA attributes Mali’s weaker outlook partly to unfavorable weather conditions observed across UEMOA cotton-producing countries during September and October, a critical maturation phase for cotton bolls.

The bulletin states: “In most countries, a scarcity of rainfall was observed, notably in dry and median zones, signalling the end of the rainy season. This situation could negatively impact the development of late sowings, resulting in low productivity.”

  Rainfall trends by country for the month of October

PR-PICA notes that Mali received only 14 mm of rainfall in October 2025, representing a 90% drop compared with 152 mm recorded in October of the previous season. The organisation adds that Mali entered the season with structural challenges.

Local media outlet Studio Tamani reported in June 2025 that many farmers had already expressed concern about delays in input supply, which forced them to postpone key field operations in several areas. They also cited security-related constraints affecting farming activity.

The coming months of the campaign will determine whether these conditions effectively trigger a shift in the regional hierarchy of West Africa’s top cotton producers.

This article was initially published in French by Stéphanas Assocle

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum