• Ghana reduces 2024/2025 cocoa forecast to a maximum of 600,000 tons
• Structural issues continue to affect output, including disease and climate change
• Global cocoa prices remain under pressure, rising to $9,602 per ton in June

West Africa remains the center of global cocoa production. With market conditions tight and uncertainty surrounding regional exports, attention is focused on key producers such as Ghana, which supplies 12% of the world’s cocoa.

Ghana is expected to miss its cocoa production target for the 2024/2025 season. After lowering its forecast in December 2024 from 650,000 tons to 617,500 tons, the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) now anticipates a maximum harvest of 600,000 tons.

“I don’t think that much will change, looking at the time we have to end the crop season," said Randy Abbey, Cocobod’s Managing Director, on June 10, as quoted by MyJoyOnline. He added that 590,000 tons of cocoa beans had already been collected with three months remaining in the season.

This downward revision highlights the persistent challenges facing Ghana’s cocoa sector. These include aging plantations, the spread of the Swollen Shoot virus, illegal mining activity (known as galamsey), smuggling, and the impact of climate change.

In the context of a stressed global cocoa market, the anticipated drop in Ghanaian output is likely to drive cocoa prices even higher. Prices have already been at historic highs for more than a year. On June 10, cocoa closed at $9,602 per ton on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), more than double its price of $3,704 recorded on January 2, 2024.