• Global rice prices to stay low through early 2026

• India to export record 25M tons; stocks hit all-time high

• Sub-Saharan Africa import demand up 15% in 2025

Global rice prices are unlikely to rebound in the near future, according to a recent report from the Observatory of International Rice Statistics (Osiriz). The organization predicts the downward price trend that began in 2024 "should continue at least until early 2026." This forecast is primarily driven by an anticipated influx of abundant Asian harvests and the expected release of large stocks by India.

India, the world's most populous nation and now its top rice producer ahead of China, is projected to export a record 25 million tons of the grain during the 2025/2026 season.

At the same time, global rice stocks are expected to grow by 5.8% to a historic high of 210.3 million tons. The report, affiliated with the French agricultural research center CIRAD, noted that the ample export supply has already contributed to a 1.7% price drop since July.

Global trade remains strong. While worldwide rice exchanges are expected to reach 61.4 million tons, a 2.9% increase, Osiriz highlights that import demand in Sub-Saharan Africa could grow by another 15% in 2025, following a significant 17% increase last year.

"In Sub-Saharan Africa, the seasonal supply of local rice is tight, and demand for imported Asian rice remains very active," the report stated. "According to the latest forecasts, imports could increase to 19.5 million tons from 18.9 million tons in 2024."

Sub-Saharan Africa is the world's largest regional importer of rice, accounting for nearly one-third of total global imports.

Espoir Olodo