• World wine production expected between 228 and 235 million hectoliters

• Output up 3% from 2024 but still below the five-year average

• Italy leads producers as Southern Hemisphere sees strong recovery

Global wine production in 2025 is expected to range between 228 and 235 million hectoliters (mhl), with an average estimate of 232 mhl, according to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV) in a statement released on November 12.

The Dijon-based institution said this median level represents a 3% increase from the historically low 2024 output, though it remains below the average of the past five years. Unfavorable weather conditions continued to weigh on recovery, particularly in the European Union, which accounts for 60% of global production.

In the EU, output rose slightly by 2% to 140 mhl, but if confirmed in upcoming OIV updates, this would still mark the bloc’s second-lowest level since the start of the 21st century.

“Producers once again faced contrasting weather conditions, ranging from drought and heat episodes to excess rainfall and localised storms, which led to uneven yields and ongoing pressure on vine health,” the OIV noted.

Italy stood out as the top performer, consolidating its position as the world’s leading producer in 2025 with 47.4 mhl, up 8%. The United States ranked fourth with 21.7 mhl, up 3%, while France and Spain saw declines of 1% (35.9 mhl) and 6% (29.4 mhl), respectively.

In the Southern Hemisphere, production rebounded strongly with a 7% increase, driven by sharp gains in Brazil (+38%), New Zealand (+32%), South Africa (+16%), and Australia (+11%), which offset declines in Chile and Uruguay.

Although 2025 will mark the third consecutive year of global output below the five-year average, the OIV views this as a potentially positive sign for market balance amid weak demand, trade tensions, and falling consumption in China.

“Low output can be very difficult for individual producers and regions ... but from a macroeconomic perspective, it's a positive, because it really makes sure that production and consumption are more or less aligned,” OIV Director-General John Barker told Reuters.