• Regional cereal harvest forecast at 34.8 million tons in 2025

• Egypt accounts for about 70% of total regional output

• Morocco remains below its five-year average due to prolonged drought

In North Africa, cereal production is expected to reach 34.8 million tons in 2025, according to the FAO’s latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report published in November. If confirmed, this level would mark a 6.1% increase, or about 2 million tons more than output recorded a year earlier.

All countries in the region posted year-on-year growth in production volumes. “This result is mainly explained by favorable weather conditions and an expansion of planted areas in Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt,” the report said.

With an estimated harvest of 24.2 million tons, Egypt remains the region’s main production hub, accounting for nearly 70% of total supply. It is followed by Morocco with 13%, Algeria with 12%, and Tunisia.

Morocco is the only country where production remains below the average recorded over the past five years, pointing to ongoing fragility in the cereal sector. According to the FAO, this situation reflects the impact of prolonged drought in the country’s main production areas.

While regional output is expected to improve in 2025, prospects for 2026 are less favorable. The FAO said early weather forecasts point to a higher probability of below-average rainfall between October and December 2025, the key sowing period for winter cereals for the 2026 season. This could disrupt planting operations and reduce planted areas in rain-fed zones of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.

Stéphanas Assocle