• Ecuador may overtake Ghana in cocoa output by 2025/26

• Ecuador's yields, farmer pay drive projected 650,000-ton harvest

• Ghana’s 600,000-ton rebound keeps the rankings race competitive

Ghana is likely to be overtaken by Ecuador as the world's second-largest cocoa producer in the 2025/26 season, according to Ivan Ontaneda, president of the Ecuadorian Association of Cocoa Exporters (Anecacao).

Ontaneda told Reuters that Ecuador's production is projected to reach 650,000 tons of beans by the end of the season. This volume would surpass the 600,000 tons estimated for Ghana in a Reuters survey.

The Anecacao president credits the expected increase in Ecuador's output to two key factors: higher farmer investment and greater yields. Ecuadorian farmers receive 90% of the global price for their beans, compared to just 70% for their Ghanaian counterparts. This higher return incentivizes investment in their farms. Furthermore, Ecuador's yields are higher, at 800 kg per hectare annually versus Ghana’s 500 kg.

Despite these projections, some analysts remain cautious about the shift in rankings. While Ghana faces challenges such as illegal gold mining and the swollen shoot disease, it still managed to produce 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season, a 33% increase from the previous year.

Ghanaian authorities have not yet released an official forecast for the 2025/26 season, but they are expected to aim for a harvest that exceeds the previous year's. This could put the two countries in a tight race and add nuance to the optimistic forecasts from Ecuador's cocoa industry.

Ghana previously lost its position as the world's leading cocoa producer to Côte d’Ivoire during the 1977/78 season.

Espoir Olodo