• Wheat imports are projected at 1.74 million tons in 2025/2026

• Higher domestic output is expected to reduce reliance on imports

• Local wheat production is forecast to rise 3% year on year

South Africa expects to import about 1.74 million tons of wheat during the 2025/2026 marketing season, according to the latest estimates from the country’s Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz).

If confirmed, this volume would represent a 5% decline compared with imports recorded in the previous season. Speaking on the issue on Monday, December 22, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo attributed the outlook to expectations of improved domestic wheat production.

He said the year-on-year improvement is supported by better harvest prospects in the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo provinces. In its latest report on the progress of the 2025 winter cereals season, published on December 18, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) forecast wheat production at 1.98 million tons, up 3% from the previous campaign.

The expected increase in output is largely driven by an expansion in planted area. According to the CEC, farmers allocated an additional 12,000 hectares to wheat cultivation in 2025, bringing the total planted area to 517,300 hectares.

However, the projected production level remains below the peak of 2.28 million tons reached in 2021. Since then, South Africa’s wheat sector has struggled to return to that record level achieved over the past decade.

Even so, the prospect of lower wheat imports could help ease the country’s food import bill. Data compiled from the Trademap platform show that South Africa spent nearly $537.8 million on wheat imports in 2024.

Stéphanas Assocle