• Morocco expects cereal production to exceed 8 million tonnes in 2025/2026, up nearly 80% year on year.

• Authorities credit improved rainfall after November for reversing early-season drought conditions.

• A stronger harvest could reduce cereal imports, which cost Morocco 27 billion dirhams ($2.9 billion) in 2024.

Morocco expects cereal output to exceed 8 million tonnes at the end of the 2025/2026 season, according to the latest industry estimates published in the Economic Outlook Budget (BEP) released by the High Commission for Planning on Jan. 19.

This projection would represent an increase of nearly 80% compared with estimated output of 4.4 million tonnes in 2024/2025. Moreover, the figure would mark the country’s highest annual cereal production since the 2020/2021 season, when output reached 10.3 million tonnes.

Cereal production trends since 2014/2015

Authorities attribute the optimistic outlook primarily to improved climatic conditions in 2026. “The start of the 2025/2026 agricultural season showed a significant rainfall deficit. However, abundant and well-distributed rainfall recorded from late November allowed the sector to catch up, which points to a more promising agricultural campaign. In addition, these favorable climatic conditions should help rebuild dam reserves and replenish groundwater,” the BEP stated.

This outlook follows the Moroccan government’s announcement on Jan. 12 that the country had ended a prolonged drought cycle that began in 2019. Data from the Ministry of Equipment and Water showed rainfall between Sept. 1, 2025, and Jan. 20, 2026 more than doubled compared with the same period a year earlier. Moreover, precipitation levels exceeded the long-term annual average by 24%, based on the 1990–2020 reference period.

Despite the rebound, projected output for 2025/2026 remains below Morocco’s historical production record of 11.5 million tonnes achieved in the 2014/2015 season. Nevertheless, expectations of a strong harvest could reduce Morocco’s reliance on cereal imports during the next marketing campaign.

Cereals—namely wheat, maize, and barley—represent Morocco’s largest food import expense. The country spent nearly 27 billion dirhams ($2.9 billion) on cereal imports in 2024, according to the Foreign Exchange Office. That amount accounted for 29% of Morocco’s total food import bill that year.

This article was initially published in French by Stéphanas Assocle

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum