• Raw sugar prices fell 16.9% in 2025 on the New York ICE.

• Global production is expected to exceed consumption in 2025/2026.

• Lower prices could ease Africa’s food import bill.

Raw sugar prices closed at 15.01 cents per pound ($331 per ton) on December 31 on the New York Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), down from 18.08 cents per pound ($398.5 per ton) on January 2, 2025. This represents a 16.9% decline over the 12 months of the year.

Price trends for sugar on the ICE

The drop aligns with forecasts released last October by the World Bank in its Commodity Markets Outlook, which reviews global commodity prices and their prospects.

The institution pointed to expectations of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/2026 season. Projections published in December by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its latest global sugar market report support this view.

The USDA estimates global sugar production, driven mainly by Brazil and India, at 189.25 million tons in 2025/2026. Global consumption needs are projected at 178.11 million tons over the same period.

FAO projections suggest a smaller surplus of 5.1 million tons for 2025/2026. In its Food Outlook report published in November 2025, the UN agency forecast global production at 185.3 million tons.

Outlook for 2026

Since the start of the new year, sugar prices on the ICE have continued to trade below the $331 per ton level at which 2025 ended. While it is still too early to confirm a continuation of the downward trend, the World Bank already expects further pressure. In its Commodity Markets Outlook, the institution forecast an overall 3% decline in average sugar prices over the full year.

At the same time, the USDA expects global sugar stocks to rise 5% year on year to 44.4 million tons in 2025/2026. Higher inventories support the view of increased sugar availability and, in turn, downward pressure on international prices, unless major climatic or political events disrupt production or boost demand.

Overall, the broad decline in global sugar prices should help ease food import bills for many African countries. FAO projections show African sugar imports rising 4.5% to 18.5 million tons in 2025/2026, reinforcing the continent’s position as the world’s second-largest importing region after Asia.

Algeria, Nigeria, Morocco, Egypt, and Sudan are the main destinations for imported sugar in Africa. Together, these five countries account for nearly 46% of the continent’s annual sugar purchases.

Stéphanas Assocle