• De Beers cuts 2026 diamond production forecast to 21-26 million carats

• Weak natural diamond demand, lab-grown competition pressure output

• Lower production weighs on Botswana economy reliant on diamonds

While the natural diamond market remains weak, De Beers has struck a cautious tone for 2026. In an operational report published on Thursday, Feb. 5, the diamond group, which has major operations in Botswana, said it now expects production of between 21 million and 26 million carats this year, down from a previous forecast of 26 million to 29 million.

The revised guidance continues the adjustment of its operating plan following cuts already implemented in 2025. “Production guidance for 2026 is revised to 21–26 million carats (100% basis) (previously 26-29 million carats), in response to the challenging rough diamond trading conditions. De Beers continues to monitor rough diamond trading conditions in order to align output with prevailing demand,” the company said, adding that it would continue to align output with demand.

Global demand for natural diamonds has declined sharply in recent years, notably due to growing competition from laboratory-grown stones. De Beers has responded by scaling back production targets. In 2025, it revised its guidance to 20 million to 23 million carats, from an initial 30 million to 33 million.

While output reached 21.6 million carats, annual production still fell 12%. In Botswana, where De Beers operates the Jwaneng and Orapa mines, production dropped 16%. Output in Namibia was down 7% year on year. Only South Africa’s Venetia mine recorded an increase of 3%, while production in Canada fell 7%.

The cautious strategy carries implications for host countries, particularly Botswana, whose economy remains heavily dependent on diamond revenues. Authorities expect a second consecutive year of economic contraction in 2025, with GDP forecast to shrink by 3% amid lower diamond sales.

How market conditions evolve in 2026 and what that means for De Beers’ production plans remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the company is preparing for its demerger from parent Anglo American as part of a restructuring announced in 2024.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou