• The World Bank projects Tunisia’s GDP growth to rise to 2.6% in 2025 from 1.4% in 2024, driven mainly by agriculture.

• Growth is expected to slow to 2.4% on average in 2026–2027 due to tighter financial conditions.

• Tunisia’s stalled IMF talks since 2023 continue to weigh on external financing prospects.

The World Bank projects Tunisia’s economy to expand by 2.6% in 2025, up from 1.4% in 2024, according to its October 7 report on the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP).

The bank said growth will be driven mainly by agriculture, with stronger production of olive oil and cereals supporting the rebound.

The World Bank forecasts growth to moderate to 2.4% on average over 2026–2027 as tighter financial conditions weigh on the economy.

Tunisia posted zero growth in 2023 before rebounding in 2024, supported by agriculture and tourism. However, drought, weak domestic demand, and uncertainty over external financing limited momentum.

Since 2023, Tunisia’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund have stalled because the government has refused to implement the reforms demanded by the institution. The deadlock has raised concerns over the country’s financing outlook and heightened economic uncertainty.

Tunisia’s economy expanded 3.2% in the second quarter of 2025, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) reported. The agency said the economy continues to operate in a “complex policy and financing environment,” with regulatory barriers to investment holding back sustained growth.

The INS said GDP could reach 1.9% in 2025 if climatic conditions improve and the manufacturing industry recovers gradually.

This article was initially published in French by Lydie Mobio

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum