• Togo expects external project grants to fall from CFA166.9 billion in 2026 to CFA31.6 billion by 2028.
• The government projects fiscal revenues to rise steadily, partially offsetting the drop in external funding.
• The decline in project grants raises questions about public investment financing and fiscal sustainability.

Togo anticipates a sharp decline in external project financing over the next three years, part of a broader trend toward fiscal self-reliance. The government expects grants from international institutions to drop from CFA166.9 billion in 2026 to CFA70.9 billion in 2027 and further to CFA31.6 billion in 2028. In absolute terms, this represents a loss of nearly 135 billion FCFA, or more than five times the projected 2028 level.

These project grants, often classified as non-tax revenues, primarily come from institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund under various programs. For 2026, Togo plans to channel 48.68 billion FCFA in World Bank funds through special accounts for three programs: the National Non-Contributory Social Protection Program, supporting cash transfers to vulnerable households via ASTRE; the Program for Modernization and Capacity Building of Public Administration (PMADS); and the Sustainable Agriculture Transformation Program (PTDAT) linked to ProMAT 2025-2034.

Separately, Togo benefits from an IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) approved in March 2024, spanning 42 months for a total of roughly CFA240 billion ($400 million).

Overall, project grants account for more than 10% of the budget in 2026 but are expected to fall below 2% by 2028 unless circumstances change. At the same time, fiscal revenues are projected to increase from CFA1,338 billion in 2026 to CFA1,620 billion in 2028.

The trajectory raises questions about the government’s capacity to finance public investments without large external support and the social sustainability of increased fiscal pressure on households and businesses. Future budget projections will clarify whether these trends mark the end of a cycle of externally funded projects or a deliberate move toward greater budgetary autonomy.

This article was initially published in French by Ayi Renaud Dossavi

Adapted in English by Ange J. A. de BERRY QUENUM