• Fitch lowered Gabon’s sovereign rating to CCC- amid rising fiscal stress

• Payment arrears reached CFA443.6 billion by October 2025, up sharply from 2024

• IMF program seen as unlikely due to arrears and expansionary fiscal policy

Fitch Ratings said on December 19 it has downgraded Gabon’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign rating to CCC- from CCC, while the local-currency rating was lowered to CC.

The agency said the downgrade reflects a sharp deterioration in the government’s cash position. Fitch pointed to widening budget deficits, increasingly limited access to financial markets, including within the CEMAC region, and a lack of external financing.

These pressures have led to a buildup of both domestic and external payment arrears, including to bilateral and multilateral creditors. According to recent data from Gabon’s Directorate General of Debt, total debt arrears reached CFA443.6 billion ($792 million) at the end of October 2025, an increase of more than CFA174 billion compared with December 2024.

“These external arrears undermine access to significant new official sector financing. We expect domestic arrears to suppliers, which were 13.2% of GDP at end-2024, to have increased in 2025,” Fitch said.

The agency also linked the fiscal deterioration to the August 2023 change of government, which brought a military-led transition to power and marked a shift in budget policy. Under strong social pressure, the new authorities have sharply increased public spending. Fitch estimates that the overall fiscal deficit, on a commitment basis, will widen to 6.1% of GDP in 2025, from 3.7% in 2024.

Public debt is also expected to rise significantly. Fitch forecasts total public debt at 80.4% of GDP in 2025, with a further increase to around 87% by 2027. “This is well above the 'B'/'C'/'D' median of 66% we expect for the period. The lack of visibility on the government's financial operations in 2025 mean debt may be higher than our current projections.,” the agency said.

Prospects for a stabilization program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), often a key source of support for countries under fiscal strain, appear remote in the near term.

“Fitch's base case assumes there will not be a new IMF program. The continuous accumulation of external arrears to the official sector, the government's expansionary fiscal policy, and the likely requirement of drastic and unpopular policy changes in a still volatile political environment will be obstacles to a program,” Fitch said.

Gabonese authorities, for their part, have been working for several months on designing a homegrown economic program that reflects national realities, before making any formal request for IMF financial support.

Sandrine Gaingne