• BEAC forecasts a gradual rebound in CEMAC foreign reserves from 2026 onward

• Reserves are projected to exceed CFA7,000 billion, or more than $12.5 billion, in 2028

• IMF programs, external borrowing, and tighter FX rules are expected to support the recovery

After a decline in 2025, the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) expects foreign exchange reserves in the CEMAC region to recover gradually over the coming years, according to a recent report by the institution.

Reserves are projected to reach CFA6,566 billion in 2026, covering 4.15 months of imports, before rising to CFA6,983 billion in 2027, equivalent to 4.16 months of imports. They are expected to exceed CFA7,000 billion in 2028, or more than $12.5 billion, covering 4.19 months of imports, based on BEAC forecasts. The central bank serves the six CEMAC member states: Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and Chad.

At the end of 2025, reserves stood at CFA6,377 billion, down from CFA7,295 billion a year earlier. This level covered only 4.25 months of imports, compared with 4.87 months in 2024. As a result, the external coverage ratio of the currency is expected to follow an upward trend, averaging around 72.4% over the 2026–2028 period, after 67.0% in 2025, the institution said.

The signing of new agreements with the International Monetary Fund and increased recourse to external borrowing by member states are expected to strengthen reserves. Non-oil exports remain solid and continue to attract foreign investment, particularly in gas, gold, and solid minerals. Stronger foreign exchange regulations and the issuance of eurobonds by some countries, including Cameroon and Gabon, are also expected to diversify financing sources and improve control over foreign currency flows.

To support this recovery and curb the decline observed at the end of 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee has taken measures including raising the main policy rate from 4.50% to 4.75% and increasing the marginal lending facility rate from 6% to 6.25%. The aim is to preserve the stability of the CFA franc and support the rebuilding of foreign exchange reserves.

Sandrine Gaingne