• The Congolese franc has strengthened 6.7% against the US dollar this month, reaching its strongest level since Jan 2024.

• Tight fiscal and monetary policies, plus a weaker dollar, support the franc, but risks from deficits and imports remain.

• Despite lower inflation, exports are down and reserves face pressure, leaving the currency’s stability precarious.

The Congolese franc (CDF) has staged a strong rally against the US dollar, hitting its strongest level in over a year, though questions linger about how long the momentum can last. According to XE.com, one dollar bought 2,707 francs on 25 September 2025 — the firmest rate since January 2024. The currency has strengthened by 6.7 per cent since the start of September and more than 5 per cent since January, defying its usual pattern of steady depreciation.

Parallel-market rates remain slightly higher, but their impact on the broader economy is limited as almost 97 per cent of foreign exchange transactions are processed through the formal banking system. Officials in Kinshasa have been keen to credit recent measures for the currency’s resilience.

The Central Bank of Congo has raised commercial banks’ reserve requirements, draining liquidity and curbing credit growth, while the Treasury says it has tightened spending and improved tax collection. “These actions have contained inflation and stabilised the franc in a turbulent global environment,” said Daniel Mukoko Samba, deputy prime minister in charge of the economy.

A precarious equilibrium

Hard numbers back up this confidence. By mid-September, foreign exchange reserves had climbed to $7.44bn, more than 50 per cent higher than a year ago, covering nearly three months of imports. The franc has also been buoyed by the dollar’s broader slide. The greenback lost over 11 per cent against major currencies in the first half of 2025, its second-worst performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, according to Morgan Stanley.

But analysts warn the tide could quickly turn. A slowdown in the US Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, or a shift back into dollar assets amid geopolitical tensions, could easily upend the trend. At home, the fiscal picture is far from reassuring. The government’s cumulative deficit reached 3,265bn francs in the first eight months of the year, despite a brief surplus in April. Tax receipts have surged beyond expectations, yet spiralling security and humanitarian spending continues to deepen the funding gap.

The paradox of strength

The external sector is also under pressure. Exports were down nearly 18 per cent by the end of July, hit by a suspension of cobalt sales, despite supportive global prices. Imports, meanwhile, rose by almost 6 per cent, underscoring the economy’s heavy reliance on the dollar. The IMF has flagged the rapid pace of import-driven dollar outflows as a key threat to the sustainability of the DRC’s reserves.

Tighter monetary policy has brought inflation below 6 per cent year-on-year, but at the cost of private investment. Credit remains scarce in a market where domestic demand is still largely unmet. The paradox is stark: a stronger currency but a private sector struggling to expand for want of financing.

For now, the franc is benefiting from an unusual alignment of factors — relative fiscal discipline, tough monetary policy and a favourable international backdrop. But the calm may not last. Without a rebound in exports or tighter control of dollar-based imports, reserves could dwindle rapidly, leaving the franc vulnerable to renewed volatility. In the DRC, the question is rarely if the tide will turn — but rather when.

Idriss Linge