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China Slashes Africa Lending 46% as Strategy Shifts, Boston University Report Says

China Slashes Africa Lending 46% as Strategy Shifts, Boston University Report Says
Thursday, 29 January 2026 20:09
  • China cut lending to Africa by 46% in 2024 to $2.1 billion, down from 2023 levels.
  • Large projects above $1 billion shifted from loans to foreign direct investment and trade financing.
  • Five countries received all Chinese loans in 2024, with Angola capturing nearly 70%.

China reduced lending to African countries by 46% in 2024 to $2.1 billion, according to a report published on Thursday, January 22, 2026, by the Global Development Policy Center, a think tank affiliated with Boston University in the United States.

The report said China redirected financing for projects costing more than $1 billion from sovereign loans toward foreign direct investment and trade finance, including exports of equipment and technology.

Selective Engagement and Strategic Retooling

The report, titled “Selective Engagement and Strategic Retooling: Chinese Loans to Africa Database, 2000–2024,” updated the China Loans to Africa (CLA) database.

The Global Development Policy Center manages the interactive project, which has tracked Chinese lending commitments since 2000 by policy banks, commercial banks, and public entities to African governments, state-owned enterprises, and regional financial institutions.

The total value of Chinese loans to Africa in 2024 represented less than 10% of the $28.8 billion peak recorded in 2016, reflecting a structural shift in China’s engagement on the continent.

Between 2012 and 2018, Chinese lending to Africa regularly exceeded $10 billion per year. Since 2019, annual lending has remained below that threshold, signaling China’s move toward a more selective strategy that favors smaller, commercially viable projects over large-scale infrastructure such as railways and highways.

Shift Away From Mega-Projects

The report said China redirected financing for large-scale projects exceeding $1 billion—particularly in energy and information and communication technology—away from loans and toward foreign direct investment and trade flows.

China accelerated this shift after it incurred losses on several loans in recent years, following debt defaults by Zambia, Ghana, and Ethiopia amid economic stress linked to the pandemic.

1,319 Loans Worth $180.87 Billion Over 25 Years

The report showed that China concentrated its 2024 lending on a small group of low-risk borrowers and resilient sectors, including transport, water and sanitation, power transmission, and financial services.

Only five African countries received Chinese loans in 2024, covering six projects.

Angola received the largest share, securing $1.45 billion for power transmission and road infrastructure projects. Kenya received $277.8 million for road infrastructure, while the Democratic Republic of Congo received $240 million for similar projects. Senegal obtained $85 million for a rural water drilling project, and Egypt received $76.5 million through a credit line for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Sector data showed that lending remained concentrated in four areas: transport, energy, water and sanitation, waste management, and financial services. These sectors have historically absorbed the bulk of Chinese lending to Africa since 2000.

Between 2000 and 2024, Chinese lenders extended 1,319 loans worth a combined $180.87 billion to 49 African governments and seven regional financial institutions, according to the report.

Angola ranked as the largest recipient over the period, accounting for 27.2% of total Chinese lending, followed by Ethiopia at 7.7%, Kenya at 5.5%, Zambia at 5.3%, and Nigeria at 4.9%.

This article was initially published in French by Walid Kéfi

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de BERRY QUENUM

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