• The Bank of Central African States kept key rates unchanged at its September 29 meeting.

• CEMAC growth is forecast to slow to 2.6% in 2025, weighed down by oil and gas output.

• Inflation is easing, but budget and current account deficits are set to widen.

The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) has decided to keep its key rates unchanged, the Monetary Policy Committee (CPM) said in a statement after its ordinary meeting held on Monday, September 29, 2025.

The main refinancing rate remains at 4.50%, the marginal lending facility at 6.00%, and the deposit facility at 0.00%. Reserve requirement ratios are maintained at 7.00% for demand deposits and 4.50% for term deposits.

The decision comes as updated forecasts point to slower economic growth. BEAC now expects CEMAC’s economy to grow by 2.6% in 2025, compared with 2.7% in 2024. The decline is driven mainly by a 1.5% contraction in oil and gas activity, which offsets 3.2% growth in non-oil sectors.

Other indicators point to rising vulnerabilities. Public finances are expected to deteriorate, with the budget deficit (excluding grants) widening from -1.0% of GDP in 2024 to -1.3% in 2025. The current account deficit is projected to expand sharply, from -0.2% of GDP in 2024 to -2.2% in 2025.

Foreign exchange reserves, though still considered “comfortable,” are set to decline. They are projected at CFA7,101.7 billion ($12.7 billion) by the end of 2025, covering 4.59 months of imports compared with 4.82 months in 2024. The external coverage ratio of the currency would fall from 74.9% to 73.2%.

BEAC highlighted one positive trend: easing inflation. The rate is expected to fall to 2.6% by the end of 2025, down from 4.1% in 2024, moving closer to the community target.

Still, the central bank remains cautious, noting that regional fragility and ongoing security tensions in some CEMAC countries could reignite inflationary pressures.