• Nigeria’s available power generation has fallen to about 4,300 MW due to insufficient gas supply.
• Thermal plants are receiving less than 43% of the gas they need to operate at full capacity.
• The shortfall persists despite a $368.5 million bond program and a major gas pipeline set to launch in 2026.

Nigeria’s Independent System Operator (NISO) said on February 27 that the country’s average available electricity generation currently stands at about 4,300 megawatts, a level constrained mainly by inadequate gas supply to thermal power plants.

According to operational data released by the operator, thermal plants — which account for the bulk of Nigeria’s electricity mix — require about 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to run at full capacity. As of February 23, 2026, actual supply stood at just 692 million cubic feet per day, or less than 43% of estimated demand.

The supply gap has reduced the amount of electricity allocated to distribution companies and forced load shedding to maintain grid stability.

The situation comes as the federal government moves forward with efforts to stabilize the power sector’s finances. In late January, authorities announced a first bond issuance of 501 billion naira ($368.5 million) under the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme. The initiative is designed to clear payment arrears owed to electricity generation companies between 2015 and 2025.

Meanwhile, the long-awaited Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline — a 614-kilometer project valued at $2.8 billion — is scheduled to begin operations in July 2026. The pipeline is expected to connect southern gas fields to major demand centers in central and northern Nigeria.

Until debt restructuring measures take hold, however, and despite proven gas reserves estimated at more than 209 trillion cubic feet, Nigeria continues to face domestic supply bottlenecks that directly constrain electricity production — which remains far below national demand, even at its peak output.

Abdoullah Diop