• ExxonMobil eyes South Africa as a priority market for long-term LNG sales.

• Qatar pushes government-to-government deals as it expands LNG exports by 80% by 2030.

• Pretoria weighs offers amid US tariffs, currency risks, and urgent energy needs.

ExxonMobil has identified South Africa as a priority market for its long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales, company vice president for LNG development Shahrukh Mirza said on October 1 at African Energy Week 2025.

According to ExxonMobil, the country may need 6 to 7 GW of new gas-fired power plants to support its energy transition. The firm is already working with Vopak and Transnet on an LNG terminal in Richards Bay.

Pretoria recently proposed buying up to $12 billion worth of US LNG over 10 years. However, talks are complicated by trade tensions with Washington, particularly after Donald Trump imposed 30% tariffs.

Meanwhile, Qatar is advancing its position. Last year, South Africa’s electricity minister named Qatar a priority supplier for Eskom and Sasol. Doha plans to increase LNG exports by 80% by 2030 and has stepped up bilateral discussions with Pretoria.

A large share of Qatar’s new LNG volumes remain uncontracted or tied to intermediaries, giving it flexibility to secure new markets. Negotiations focus on government-to-government agreements to ensure stability and reliable supply.

The two approaches differ. US suppliers promote integration into global LNG markets and infrastructure partnerships, while Qatar relies on a centralized model through QatarEnergy, with strong state control over export strategy.

The rivalry also has overlaps. QatarEnergy owns 70% of the US Golden Pass project, where ExxonMobil is also a partner, showing that competition for LNG leadership often involves cross-collaboration.

In 2024, the US was the world’s largest LNG exporter at 88.42 million tons, followed by Australia with 81.04 million tons, and Qatar with 77.23 million tons. That balance may shift as Qatar launches mega-projects such as North Field West, expected to add 16 million tons annually, according to energy minister and QatarEnergy chief Saad Sherida al-Kaabi.

For South Africa, the challenge is to secure reliable supply quickly while managing costs, rand volatility, and the choice of partners. The country is becoming a strategic arena in the US-Qatar LNG rivalry, where energy security and diplomatic alliances will shape its decisions.