• 50 oil and gas blocks opened to tender (15 onshore, 19 shallow-water, 15 frontier, one deepwater) under the next licensing round planned for January 2026.

• Daily crude oil losses fell to ~9,600 barrels per day in July 2025, the lowest in 16 years, improving sector stability.

• Domestic refining capacity rises as Dangote Refinery and other projects ramp up supply of fuel locally, intending to reduce import dependence.

Nigeria’s federal upstream regulator has launched a licensing round offering 50 oil and gas blocks, a package of 15 onshore, 19 shallow-water, 15 frontier, and one deepwater block, that the government says is intended to attract roughly US$10 billion of upstream investment and to revive output from underutilised fields. The regulator has framed the program as part of a broader push to monetise idle assets and widen the investor base. It has planned an international roadshow to promote the blocks in Lagos, Dubai, Singapore, Beijing and Houston.

Present operational and macro context

Recent official statistics indicate a rebound in several measurable sector variables in 2025. National Bureau of Statistics data for the third quarter of 2025 show average daily crude production at 1.64 million barrels per day and an oil-sector share of real GDP at 3.44% for Q3 2025. The oil sector’s output rose compared with Q3 2024, reflecting recovery from earlier disruptions.

Concurrently, gas production has also increased: the regulator released a report stating a daily gas production average of 7.59 billion standard cubic feet per day (BSCFD) in July 2025, marking year-on-year upward movement and coinciding with a reduction in gas flaring to about 7.16% for the same month. These shifts are reported by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The midstream and downstream picture shows a rapid change with the commercial start-up and ramping of the Dangote Refinery. Recent reporting states that Dangote’s facility announced a monthly petrol delivery capacity measured in the low billions of litres and a commitment to supply large volumes domestically, a development that reduces Nigeria’s historical dependence on refined imports and changes regional trading flows. News agencies cite the refinery’s gradual ramp-up and the resultant domestic supply elasticity as material to diminishing the economic incentives for crude diversion and illicit refining in neighbouring informal markets.

On foreign exchange, published market snapshots for late 2025 cite an official naira-to-dollar rate and narrower parallel-market spreads compared with earlier periods, indicating a relatively more stable FX context for contract negotiations and capital flows in this phase of the licensing outreach. (Official exchange figures are publicly released by Nigeria’s monetary authorities and market reporting; for example, late-2025 official quotes were reported in financial press summaries.)

How the licensing round is structured and the investment case presented

The offered package comprises a mix of mature onshore and shallow-water assets, together with a frontier and a single deepwater block. The mix is designed to attract a range of investors, from small- or medium-sized local operators who may prefer marginal or underutilised onshore fields, to international and national oil companies with an appetite for frontier exploration and deepwater development.

The regulator has publicly linked the round’s design to the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, which provides the contractual and fiscal framework for allocating licences, managing host-community arrangements and emphasising transparency. The NUPRC has publicly stated production upside potential from the offered blocks could reach as much as 400,000 barrels per day when projects are fully developed (the regulator’s projection accompanies the licensing announcement).

Security and integrity effects are also highlighted in official materials: reduced crude losses and a stronger domestic refining position are presented by regulators and sector reporting as factors that can lower the commercial attractiveness of oil theft and illicit refining, both by shrinking off-market outlets and by raising the cost-probability calculus for would-be actors. The timelines for production increases from awarded blocks are multi-year and contingent on investment decisions, infrastructure works and security stability.

Cynthia Ebot Takang