• DRC’s new quota circular brings clarity to cobalt exports, lifting prices slightly as markets expect continued supply tightness.

• CMOC and Glencore shares rise on confirmed export allocations, easing fears of curtailments while highlighting operational risks.

• Cobalt hydroxide and sulfate prices edge up 1–2%, supported by low inventories and capped exports, with Q1 2026 flows set as the key test.

Cobalt markets showed a measured but positive reaction on December 5, 2025, following the publication of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s long-awaited interministerial circular on December 2. The document provides more information on the quota-based export system and ends months of uncertainty about how cobalt shipments will resume.

On the sidelines of the recent Makutano Forum, Minister of Mines, Louis Watum Kabamba, said exports should have restarted during the week of November 24–30. He stated that the delay resulted from updates to the export procedures manual, which needed to incorporate new directives by the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances (ARECOMS). These rules include advance payment of certain royalties.

He said, “We had to bring our services together (Mines, Finance…) to integrate all the new elements introduced by ARECOMS… That is what took time. Last week [Monday or Tuesday], we conducted a full-scale export test with all agencies. To my knowledge, exports should resume this week.” He also promised to ensure the signing of the decree codifying the new procedure.

Although the text provides long-desired regulatory clarity, the immediate market response has been modest, as physical exports are unlikely to leave the country before late December or early January due to procedural timelines. Prices and mining equities nonetheless edged higher, reflecting expectations of continued supply tightness rather than a swift surge in available tonnage.

CMOC Group, the world’s largest cobalt producer, registered a 2.8% increase on the Shanghai Stock Exchange between December 4 and 5, closing near 18.45 CNY (China Yuan). The stock has gained more than 5% over the past week. The circular confirms CMOC’s significant quota allocation—6,500 tonnes for Q4 2025 and 31,200 tonnes for 2026—representing roughly 27% of the national quota and reinforcing confidence in the company’s output plans. CMOC maintains its 2025 cobalt production guidance of 100,000–120,000 tonnes, similar to its 2024 figure of 114,000 tonnes. Trading volumes rose by about 15%, consistent with increasing institutional positioning.

Glencore posted a milder reaction, with shares rising 1.2% to 374.3p over the same 24-hour period. Earlier in the week, the stock had already strengthened as the company reaffirmed its full-year production guidance despite cobalt inventories building at its Katanga Mining Complex. Glencore’s Q4 2025 export allocation of around 3,925 tonnes provides room to prioritise copper—its main profit driver—while maintaining enough cobalt stock to meet contractual obligations.

Month-to-date, Glencore shares are up around 11%, outpacing the FTSE 100. Other producers with smaller DRC exposure, such as Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) and Jinchuan Group, posted modest gains of 0.5–1.5%. Their performance reflects cautious optimism, as the circular reiterates "use-it-or-lose-it" conditions for unused quotas. Broader mining ETFs, including the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT), advanced about 1.1%, reflecting general sector momentum.

Cobalt Prices Edge Higher on Improved Visibility

Cobalt prices rose slightly on December 4–5 as traders adjusted to the prospect of export resumption. Trading volumes remained light due to year-end effects, but the price trend was clearly upward. Cobalt hydroxide (30% Co, CIF China), the central intermediate exported from the DRC, rose 1.5% to $18.75–19.25/lb, equivalent to $41,300–42,400 per tonne. This increase continues the 12–18% rally observed since mid-November, supported by falling Chinese inventories, which are down 40% year-to-date.

December export quotas totalling 7,250 tonnes add visibility for refiners. Gains were tempered by increased Indonesian imports of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), up 15% week-on-week, which continues to serve as an alternative feedstock. On the London Metal Exchange, three-month hydroxide futures held steady at $19.10/lb, with the contango narrowing to $0.25/lb, suggesting expected delays in physical deliveries into Q1 2026.

Cobalt sulfate (20.5% Co, ex-works China) followed a similar trajectory, increasing 1.2% to RMB 68,500–76,000 per tonne ($9,650–10,710/t/t). Weekly gains of 8% reflect restocking as producer margins have recently returned to positive territory. Although sulfate has risen less than hydroxide this year (140% versus 245% since February lows), the DRC’s new annual export cap of 96,600 tonnes for 2026—roughly half of 2024 volumes—supports expectations of firmer prices ahead. Standard-grade cobalt metal in Rotterdam remained stable at $19.70–20.10/lb.

The circular represents a structural shift in the DRC’s approach to cobalt exports. As the supplier of roughly 78% of global mined output in 2024, the DRC is using its market position to stabilise prices after a prolonged oversupply pushed cobalt to nine-year lows of $9.50–10.40/lb in February 2025.

The quota system allocates 18,125 tonnes for Q4 2025 and 96,600 tonnes per year for 2026–2027, including a 9,600-tonne strategic reserve. The framework consolidates audit procedures, export certifications, and multi-agency coordination. It also integrates efforts to reduce smuggling—estimated at 10–20% of flows—and strengthen fiscal and traceability controls.

Looking ahead, cobalt hydroxide prices have risen more than 240% year-to-date, reflecting tight global supply. Yet the market continues to face structural headwinds, including expanding Indonesian MHP production, increased recycling capacity, wider adoption of low-cobalt battery chemistries, and geopolitical frictions involving the DRC and downstream refiners.

Physical exports expected in early Q1 2026 will provide the first tangible test of the quota system’s impact. If enforcement remains consistent, prices may stabilise above $20/lb. If unofficial flows rise or export procedures falter, volatility is likely to persist. The circular, therefore, marks an essential step toward a more structured supply framework, but its effectiveness will depend on how smoothly the system functions in practice.

Idriss Linge, With the Assistance of Pierre Mukoko from Bankable Africa