• OPEC+ kept production targets unchanged for January–March 2026.
• Eight core producers account for more than half of global oil supply.
• The IEA expects a 3.8 million bpd oil surplus in 2026, slightly below prior forecasts.

During a brief virtual meeting held on Sunday, the eight core members of OPEC+ decided to keep their production targets unchanged for January, February, and March. This decision confirmed a stance adopted in November, when the group opted to temporarily suspend output increases for the quarter due to seasonally weaker demand during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The countries involved include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman. Together, these producers account for more than half of global oil production. In 2025, the group raised its collective production targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 3% of global demand, as part of a strategy to regain market share after several years of voluntary output cuts aimed at supporting prices. According to Reuters, the group discussed no further adjustments during its first meeting of the year.

This short-term stability decision followed a difficult year for oil markets. In 2025, crude prices fell by more than 18%, marking their largest annual decline since 2020. Persistent concerns about excess supply largely drove the downturn.

Market Under Pressure From Surplus Risks

OPEC+’s cautious approach carried added weight amid a tense geopolitical backdrop. The market faced ongoing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates linked to the conflict in Yemen, while uncertainty surrounded the outlook for Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

As questions mounted over production prospects for the new year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) offered guidance in a report published in October. The agency said market dynamics would depend on the gradual return of volumes previously withheld by OPEC+, combined with rising non-OPEC supply, particularly from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina.

In a December update, the IEA forecast a global oil surplus of about 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, slightly below earlier estimates. The agency attributed the revision to lower supply expectations, linked in part to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela, alongside stronger-than-expected demand growth.