• Morgan Stanley forecast gold at $4,800 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• The bank cited expected interest-rate cuts, Federal Reserve leadership change, and sustained central bank buying.
• Gold ended 2025 up 64%, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979.

U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley forecast a gold price of $4,800 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to a note published on Monday, January 5, and cited by several international media outlets.

If realized, the forecast would push gold prices beyond the highs reached at the end of 2025.

In its analysis, Morgan Stanley identified several factors likely to support gold prices. The bank cited the prospect of further interest-rate cuts, an expected leadership change at the U.S. Federal Reserve, and continued gold purchases by central banks and selected investment funds.

Lower interest rates typically reduce returns on fixed-income assets, which historically increases gold’s appeal as a non-yielding store of value.

The note also referenced recent events in Venezuela as factors reinforcing gold’s safe-haven status, although the bank did not explicitly include them in its numerical forecast.

Uptrend and market outlook

The Morgan Stanley projection extended a bullish cycle that began earlier than many analysts expected.

In October 2025, gold crossed the symbolic $4,000-an-ounce threshold for the first time, outpacing several institutional forecasts.

The metal reached an all-time high of $4,549.71 an ounce on December 26, 2025. Gold ended the year with a 64% annual gain, marking its strongest performance since 1979, according to market data.

Morgan Stanley expected the uptrend to continue into 2026. However, other analysts expressed even stronger optimism. JP Morgan, Bank of America, and consultancy Metals Focus previously suggested that gold prices could exceed $5,000 an ounce this year.

Many gold-producing countries monitored the market closely. In Africa, gold represented a major source of export earnings and public revenue. Economies such as Ghana, Mali, Burkina Faso, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe derived a significant share of budgetary resources from gold production.