• Robex regains lead in $1.5B merger with Predictive after rival bid withdrawn
  
  
• Revised terms give Predictive 53.5% stake; merger focuses on Guinea gold assets
  
  
• Kiniero set for 2025 output; Bankan decision expected in Q2 2026
  

Canadian miner Robex Resources has regained the lead in its proposed 1.5 billion dollar merger with Predictive Discovery after a competing offer fell away, Predictive said on Thursday, Dec. 11. The company said Robex submitted a revised proposal considered superior and more consistent with both sides’ growth plans in Guinea.

Robex and Predictive announced in October an agreement to merge and create a new gold producer expected to deliver more than 400,000 ounces annually by 2029. The transaction is built largely around their Guinea development projects, Kiniero and Bankan. While the deal awaited shareholder approval, Perseus Mining, which owns 17.8 percent of Predictive, launched an unsolicited takeover bid last week.

Perseus’s proposal was initially assessed as superior to the merger terms, but Robex’s counteroffer shifted the balance. Under the amended terms, Predictive would hold 53.5 percent of the merged company and Robex 46.5 percent, compared with the original 51-49 split.

“We are pleased to announce the Amended Robex Arrangement Agreement, which reflects our shared commitment to combine two of the largest, lowest cost and most advanced gold projects in West Africa,” Managing Director Andrew Pardey said. “In light of this feedback [...] the Board has concluded the amended transaction with Robex is in the best interests of the Company and our shareholders.”

Perseus later withdrew its offer, clearing the way for Robex and Predictive to move forward. Predictive said the merger structure gives both companies more flexibility, particularly in securing financing for Bankan, which has not yet entered construction. Kiniero is expected to begin production by the end of 2025.

Predictive said it expects to make a final investment decision for Bankan in the second quarter of 2026. The project carries an estimated development cost of 463 million dollars, according to a definitive feasibility study published in June. A shareholder meeting originally scheduled for Dec. 30 to approve the merger has been postponed so Predictive can brief Robex shareholders on the amended terms. No new date has been announced.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou