• Nigeria averaged 1.64 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensates in the first 11 months of 2025, below government targets.

• Crude output excluding condensates ranged between 1.38 million and 1.53 million barrels per day, far from the 2 million barrels per day short-term goal.

• Infrastructure bottlenecks and security constraints continued to limit production growth despite reduced oil theft.

Nigeria continues to rely structurally on oil revenues, which provide between 65% and 80% of public revenues and nearly 80% to 90% of exports, according to World Bank and OPEC data. Against this backdrop, the country seeks every year to strengthen revenues from crude oil production.

However, Nigeria failed to meet its oil production targets in 2025 despite a relative stabilization in output volumes. According to data from the upstream petroleum regulator, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, released on Monday, January 12, 2026, the country averaged 1.64 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensates over the first eleven months of last year.

In detail, the figures show crude oil production excluding condensates ranging between 1.38 million and 1.53 million barrels per day depending on the month. Consequently, output remained well below the Nigerian government’s short-term target of 2 million barrels per day.

This performance placed Nigeria close to its production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which stands at around 1.5 million barrels per day. Nevertheless, Nigerian authorities continue to seek an upward revision of this ceiling.

Meanwhile, NUPRC data indicated a reduction in losses linked to oil theft. However, the regulator continued to cite infrastructure constraints and security challenges as key factors limiting the country’s ability to sustainably increase production levels.

In response, the regulator accelerated approvals of oil and gas projects in 2025 to unlock delayed investments, according to Ecofin Agency. As a result, authorities commissioned a new oil terminal in the Niger Delta dedicated to marginal field production to facilitate exports by small producers. In addition, the government launched the 2025 oil licensing round on December 1 as part of the same strategy.

This article was initially published in French by Abdel-Latif Boureima

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum