• Nigeria suspends planned 15% fuel import levy to avoid holiday shortages
• Move follows backlash over risks to supply, price hikes, and market dominance
• Dangote refinery remains key amid stalled state plants, import dependence persists

The Nigerian government has suspended a 15 percent import levy on gasoline and diesel that was scheduled to take effect in December 2025. The measure was part of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s tax reform agenda and was meant to lift non-oil revenue and encourage local production. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reversed the decision after fuel distributors warned of supply risks and possible shortages during the holiday period.

The Federal government has suspended the implementation of the proposed 15% import tax on petrol and diesel. pic.twitter.com/XS0mFQXKNA

— Imran Muhammad (@Imranmuhdz) November 13, 2025

The tax was designed to raise the cost of fuel imports and, in turn, cut Nigeria’s dependence on foreign supply in favor of domestic output, especially from the Dangote Group refinery.

Distributors criticized the measure as hasty, arguing it could constrain imports and create a market dominated by the Dangote facility. In its statement, the NMDPRA said fuel stocks were sufficient and cautioned against speculative price increases or panic buying. The agency also pledged tighter monitoring of supply during the high-demand season.

The reversal exposes the tensions within an economy reliant on oil but unable to produce its own refined fuels. Nigeria, despite being Africa’s largest crude producer, still imports most of its petroleum products. After decades of investment, including more than $25 billion aimed at reviving state-owned refineries, none of the plants are currently operational. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is now seeking foreign partners to restart the units, leaving the Dangote refinery as the only major functioning alternative.

The government originally introduced the levy to protect emerging refining capacity and stabilize the domestic market. But with inflation above 18 percent in September 2025, authorities were unwilling to risk another jump in pump prices or social unrest ahead of the holidays.

Suspending the tax eases pressure in the short term but does not resolve the country’s structural dependence on fuel imports, which leaves Nigeria exposed to global price volatility and supply disruptions.

In the medium term, restarting state-owned refineries could help rebalance the market and potentially turn Nigeria into a net exporter of refined products. For now, the Tinubu administration must manage competing priorities: supporting the growth of local refining, including the Dangote facility, while maintaining price stability for a population already strained by subsidy removal and a weaker naira.

Olivier de Souza