• Uganda expects 8% yearly GDP growth, driven by oil, transport, and power projects

• Crude output set to begin mid-2026, with production projected to peak at 230,000 bpd

• IMF sees oil start boosting budget balance and current account in coming years

Uganda’s economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 8% over the next five years, supported by the launch of crude oil production and investments in transport and electricity infrastructure, the Ministry of Finance said on September 11.

“Crude oil production, expected to begin around mid-2026, will help push growth into double digits in the 2026/27 (July-June) fiscal year,” the ministry said in a post on X, quoting Finance Minister Matia Kasaija. He presented the budget strategy for 2026/27, estimating economic growth at 7% for 2025/26.

Kasaija said the government will prioritize oil and gas, transport infrastructure, electricity, and industrial parks in the next fiscal year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had already noted in late 2024 that crude oil output would drive double-digit growth and durably improve the fiscal balance and current account.

Uganda has discovered multiple oil fields in the Lake Albert basin, including Mputa, Kingfisher, and Tilenga. The basin, which borders the Democratic Republic of Congo, holds an estimated 6.5 billion barrels of crude, of which 2.2 billion are considered recoverable. The IMF ranks Uganda’s reserves as the fourth largest in sub-Saharan Africa, after Nigeria, Angola, and South Sudan.

Production, mainly from Kingfisher and Tilenga, is expected to start mid-2026, though delays remain possible. International oil companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and France’s TotalEnergies are investing in field development and in the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which will carry crude to Tanzania’s port of Tanga.

Uganda’s oil production is expected to last 25 to 30 years, with peak output reaching about 230,000 barrels per day.

According to European credit insurer Credendo, oil production is likely to deliver strong benefits for the economy, including a budget surplus and a sharp reduction in public debt, which stood at about 54% of GDP in 2024.