• Guinea, Cameroon and Ghana are advancing alumina refinery projects worth more than $1 billion to capture more value from bauxite.

• Africa holds 29% of global bauxite reserves but less than 1% of global alumina refining capacity, according to the African Development Bank.

• Rising global aluminum demand could lift the alumina market to $67 billion by 2032 from $42 billion in 2024.

Africa holds vast bauxite resources but continues to operate limited refining capacity. This imbalance has constrained the continent’s gains from higher value-added segments such as alumina, a market expected to grow strongly through 2030.

On Friday, December 12, the Guinean government announced the start of construction works for an alumina refinery in Boké. The project carries a cost exceeding $1.2 billion and involves a partnership with Winning Consortium Alumina Guinea (WCAG). This development reflects a broader continental trend as several African countries seek to expand alumina output despite long-standing capacity gaps.

Guinea, Cameroon, Ghana: a shared momentum

The African Development Bank highlighted this paradox in its November 2025 report, “A Dozen Critical Minerals for Africa’s Growth and Development.” The report stated that Africa controls 29% of global bauxite reserves but operates less than 1% of global alumina refining capacity. Guinea has attempted to reverse this trend in recent years by encouraging producers to build refineries on its territory.

Before the WCAG project launch, the world’s leading bauxite producer had already started another alumina refinery in Boffa in March. The project carries an estimated cost of $1.03 billion. Chinese group State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) is developing the facility. The plant should eventually reach an annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes of alumina, matching the volume targeted by WCAG.

Australian miner Canyon Resources, which develops the Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon, has also joined this momentum. The company announced in October the launch of a feasibility study to develop a refinery aimed at maximizing asset value. The company expects to complete the study in the third quarter of 2026.

Meanwhile, Ghana has also signaled ambitions to better monetize its bauxite resources. The country plans to develop at least two refineries with a combined capacity estimated between 4 million and 6 million tonnes of alumina. Authorities have already signed agreements to support this strategy, including a partnership with Greek industrial group Mytilineos SA.

Targeting a more attractive market

Several strategic challenges surround these initiatives. If projects materialize, they could strengthen Africa’s bauxite value chain while positioning host countries and sponsors in a more attractive alumina market. On the London Metal Exchange, alumina for January delivery traded at $311 per tonne on Sunday, December 14. By comparison, bauxite traded at $81.5 per tonne on the Shanghai Metals Market.

These investment dynamics also coincide with expectations of rising global aluminum consumption. A 2022 report from the International Aluminium Institute estimated that producers will need to supply an additional 33.3 million tonnes of aluminum to meet demand growth across industrial sectors. This trend could drive higher alumina demand. Verified Market Research forecasts the alumina market at $67 billion by 2032, up from $42 billion in 2024.

However, limited data still prevent a clear assessment of how much these projects will expand Africa’s refining capacity. In addition, bauxite processing requires reliable and efficient energy supply. Nearly 600 million people across the continent still lack access to electricity. According to the Atlantic Council, bauxite mining consumes about 34 kilowatt-hours per metric tonne, while refining into aluminum requires more than 3,000 kilowatt-hours.

This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum