• DRC regulator ARECOMS waives strict rules, allowing miners to keep unused Q4 2025 cobalt quotas despite ongoing export delays.

• Bureaucratic hurdles have stalled shipments, but the decision protects 18,125 tonnes of allocations for majors like CMOC and Glencore.

• Cobalt prices hit $24/lb on tight supply as the waiver prevents quota loss, offering relief to miners unable to ship before year-end.

In a slight deviation from its newly established strict regulatory framework, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mining regulator has confirmed that cobalt producers will not forfeit their unused export quotas provided for the final quarter of 2025. The decision, communicated by the Regulatory Authority for the Control of Strategic Mineral Substance Markets (ARECOMS), offers an unexpected lifeline to the industry, overriding the "use-it-or-lose-it" policy that initially threatened to revoke allocations due to persistent logistical bottlenecks.

In a statement responding to inquiries from Bloomberg on Thursday, December 11, ARECOMS provided clarity on the stalled export process, affirming that the testing phase for the new system is nearing completion. Crucially, the regulator guaranteed that quotas allocated for the October-to-December window would not expire at the end of the year. This assurance allows major operators to retain their shipping rights for the entirety of the allocated volumes—totaling 18,125 tonnes—even though actual exports have remained virtually paralyzed since the lifting of the national export ban in mid-October.

The reprieve comes as the sector grapples with a chaotic transition to the new quota regime. Despite the official resumption of trade permissions on October 16, shipments have been stalled by a combination of bureaucratic hurdles and a prolonged pilot phase for new administrative procedures. Mining operators, represented by the Chamber of Mines, have cited serious difficulties in complying with new requirements, including controversial royalty prepayments based on current market prices and enhanced traceability documentation. These administrative delays, compounded by poor infrastructure and instability in the eastern regions, have left massive stockpiles stranded at mine sites.

For key industry players such as CMOC Group and Glencore, this regulatory exception prevents a significant financial blow. Under the initial rules, any volume unexported by December 31 was set to be lost and potentially reallocated to a state-controlled strategic reserve. The waiver ensures these companies can eventually monetize the inventory accumulated during the ten-month embargo. The specific allocations for this period included approximately 6,500 tonnes for CMOC and 3,925 tonnes for Glencore, volumes that remain critical for their end-of-year financial performance.

The global cobalt market has reacted sharply to the ongoing supply tightness. Prices for cobalt hydroxide have rebounded spectacularly, more than quadrupling from the historic lows of roughly $10 per pound seen in February 2025 to trade around $24 per pound in December. While analysts warn that high prices could eventually drive battery makers toward cobalt-free substitutes, the market currently views the logistical delays in the DRC as a support mechanism for pricing. As the industry looks toward 2026, however, the strict quota cap of 96,600 tonnes per year remains a looming reality, signaling a permanent structural shift in how the world’s largest producer manages its strategic mineral wealth.

Idriss Linge, With Bankable.africa