• Production could rise to 25–30 million tons this year, from about 10 million in 2025
• Growth driven by ArcelorMittal’s $1.8bn expansion and new mining entrants
• Iron ore remains central to public revenue and export earnings

Liberia could increase its iron ore production to between 25 million and 30 million tons as early as this year, up from about 10 million tons in 2025. The projection was announced by Mines Minister Matenokay Tingban during the Mining Indaba conference.

The outlook is based mainly on ArcelorMittal’s ramp-up. The company plans to export 20 million tons starting in 2026, compared with a historical average of about 5 million tons per year. The forecast also factors in the start of production by new operators, including Cavalla Resources, Westcrest and Zodiac, as well as the restart of Bao Chico’s operations.

The announcement comes as iron ore prices rose in 2025, supported by demand from China.

The expected increase in output follows a large industrial program focused on infrastructure. ArcelorMittal is leading a $1.8bn expansion project centered on a new concentrator at Tokadeh in Nimba County. The goal is to raise processing capacity and improve ore quality.

The project also includes upgrades to the rail corridor linking Tokadeh to the port of Buchanan, expansion of port facilities with the construction of an additional quay, and the commissioning of two power plants to secure energy supply for the site.

Investment Framework and Long-Term Bet

To support these investments, Liberia’s Parliament recently ratified an amendment to the mining development agreement between the state and the steel group. The revised deal extends the partnership to 2050, with a 25-year renewal option. It also provides for a $200m payment to the Liberian government in exchange for extended mining rights and reserved access to rail capacity financed by the investor.

The strategy comes after years of economic shocks. Civil war between 1989 and 2003 disrupted industrial activity and damaged infrastructure. The Ebola crisis and later the Covid-19 pandemic slowed recovery and limited public resources. In that context, securing long-term contracts is seen as a way to attract sustained capital into a key sector of the economy.

Data from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative show that the extractive sector accounted for more than 21% of domestic revenue in 2023. Iron ore dominates those flows, and ArcelorMittal Liberia accounts for about 90% of the country’s iron ore exports.

The planned expansion is therefore viewed as directly linked to stronger public finances and greater macroeconomic stability.

Olivier de Souza