• Copper output fell 8% in 2025 to 370,000 tons

• Production is expected to recover gradually, reaching up to 480,000 tons by 2028

• Growth is mainly driven by higher output at the Kansanshi mine

First Quantum released last week its preliminary operating results for the past twelve months, along with production guidance through 2028. In Zambia, the Canadian miner saw its copper production fall by 8% year on year in 2025, to 370,000 tons. The company now expects output to rise steadily over the coming years, with volumes projected to peak at up to 480,000 tons in 2028.

The expected recovery is largely driven by the Kansanshi mine, where production already increased to 181,000 tons last year, up from 171,000 tons in 2024. For this year, First Quantum forecasts output at Kansanshi between 175,000 and 205,000 tons, compared with a revised range of 175,000 to 185,000 tons in 2025. Production is then expected to rise to between 210,000 and 240,000 tons in 2027, before reaching between 230,000 and 260,000 tons in 2028.

At the Sentinel mine, production came in slightly below target, with output down 18% year on year to 189,000 tons in 2025, compared with 231,000 tons in 2024. The company had previously guided for copper production of between 190,000 and 200,000 tons. Looking ahead to 2026–2028, forecasts remain broadly stable, with annual production expected to range between 190,000 and 220,000 tons.

At Kansanshi, higher production in 2025 was supported by the ramp-up of the S3 processing circuit, which delivered its first concentrates in August 2025. The increase projected through 2028 is expected to rely mainly on the continued ramp-up of this circuit, combined with an improvement in ore grades. At Sentinel, the decline reflects the processing of lower-grade ore and heavier maintenance requirements, despite higher throughput volumes. Between 2026 and 2028, production plans factor in these maintenance constraints, alongside expected productivity gains and technical adjustments aimed at securing ore supply.

As Zambia’s leading copper producer, First Quantum plays a central role in the government’s ambition to raise annual copper output to 3 million tons by 2031. By that point, the company’s share, which currently accounts for about one-third of national production, is expected to decline as new mines come onstream. First Quantum also operates the Enterprise nickel mine in Zambia, where production rose from 19,000 tons in 2024 to 23,200 tons in 2025.

Emiliano Tossou