• Gold prices surged to a record $4,800 per ounce, exceeding Morgan Stanley’s timeline by nearly a year.

• Geopolitical tensions and sustained central bank buying continued to drive demand for the metal.

• Major banks now see a possible move above $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Geopolitical tensions and sustained central bank purchases lifted gold prices sharply in 2025. Gold prices ended the year with a 64% gain, which marked the metal’s strongest annual performance since 1979. Early 2026 confirmed this momentum as gold extended its upward trend.

On January 21, gold prices crossed the $4,800-per-ounce threshold for the first time. Gold traded around $4,835 per ounce in the evening, according to the World Gold Council. The new record reflected a much faster price trajectory than Morgan Stanley had anticipated.

On January 5, when gold traded below $4,500 per ounce, the New York-based bank projected prices would reach $4,800 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank based its forecast on expectations of further US interest rate cuts and continued gold purchases by central banks. However, analysts now attributed the sharper-than-expected rally primarily to current geopolitical dynamics.

According to Trading Economics, geopolitical tensions linked to US ambitions over Greenland partly explained the surge in prices. The situation fueled a standoff with European countries, as the Trump administration used tariff threats as a deterrent. In this context, investors increased allocations to safe-haven assets such as gold, which pushed prices higher.

“There is a bit of fear of missing out and I think, given the current global geopolitical situation, this is an ideal environment for gold prices to rise,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at brokerage RJO Futures, as quoted by Reuters.

Since the start of the year, gold prices have already gained more than 8%. Analysts expect the trend to continue, as some forecasts exceed Morgan Stanley’s outlook. JP Morgan, Bank of America, and consultancy Metals Focus have cited the possibility of gold prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

This article was initially published in Aurel Sèdjro Houenou

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum