• New heads named at Nigeria’s upstream and downstream oil regulators

• Appointments come amid disputes involving Dangote Group and fuel imports

• Investor confidence hinges on regulators’ independence under the PIA

Nigeria’s decision to appoint new leaders at its two oil sector regulators is emerging as a first major credibility test for the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), four years after the law was adopted.

President Bola Tinubu has named Oritsemeyiwa Amanorisewo Eyesan to lead the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and Saidu Aliyu Mohammed as head of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The appointments were announced on December 17.

The leadership changes come as implementation of the PIA, which was designed to overhaul governance of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, faces mounting operational tensions. The reshuffle follows a breakdown in relations between the outgoing management teams and Dangote Group, which has publicly challenged the conduct of former NUPRC chief Gbenga Komolafe and former NMDPRA head Farouk Ahmed.

At the center of the dispute was the authorization of low-cost fuel imports, which Dangote argued undermined local refining. The industrial conglomerate escalated the issue by filing a complaint with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), highlighting the growing difficulty of regulatory arbitration under the current framework.

The core issue raised by the new appointments is whether the Nigerian state can uphold both the letter and the spirit of the Petroleum Industry Act. Passed after more than a decade of legislative debate, the law sought to insulate regulation from political and commercial influence by dismantling the former Department of Petroleum Resources.

The PIA created a clear institutional split between the NUPRC, responsible for upstream exploration and production, and the NMDPRA, which oversees transportation, processing, and distribution of petroleum products. Ongoing disputes suggest that the regulatory independence and predictability promised by the law have yet to fully take hold.

The early actions of Eyesan and Mohammed, whose appointments still require confirmation by Nigeria’s Parliament, will therefore be closely watched by markets.

Their credibility will be assessed against precedents elsewhere in Africa, particularly Angola. In 2019, Luanda successfully operationalized the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG), severing the long-standing link between regulation and Sonangol, the state oil company.

In Nigeria’s case, investors will be looking to see whether the NUPRC and NMDPRA can establish similar institutional separation in the face of political pressure and the economic weight of Dangote Group.

Achieving this autonomy is a key condition for reversing the decline in investment in Nigeria’s oil sector. According to data presented by the NUPRC and cited in September 2025, investment has fallen by around 70% over the past decade, dropping from $27 billion in 2014 to less than $6 billion in 2022.

Abdel-Latif Boureima