• Cocoa prices closed at $5,159 per tonne, the lowest level since October 2024.

• The EU postponed enforcement of its deforestation-free import law to late 2026.

• Rabobank expects a global cocoa surplus of 273,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season.

In 2024, cocoa prices reached record highs. The rally faded as the market anticipated stronger supply and weaker demand.

International cocoa prices continued to decline. On November 21, the New York benchmark closed at $5,159 per tonne, its lowest level since October 2024. The decline occurred while the European Union delayed the implementation of its law banning imports of agricultural products linked to deforestation.

The EU law, which targets palm oil, cocoa, coffee, soy and timber, will take effect at the end of 2026. The delay reassured the market after months of concern about how the regulation could squeeze cocoa stocks. Analysts say the downward trend also reflects improved supply prospects and weaker global demand.

Forecasts from Dutch lender Rabobank, published in September and reviewed by Agence Ecofin, show an expected 273,000-tonne surplus for the 2025/2026 season. The surplus will stem from higher production in West Africa, primarily in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Authorities in Ghana expect output to exceed 650,000 tonnes in the upcoming season, compared with 600,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Yet some observers believe prices could rise again in the coming weeks. The harmattan dry wind will intensify by early December, and the market will closely watch its impact on the second half of the 2024/2025 main crop, which runs from January to March.

This article was initially published in French by Espoir Olodo

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum